Pretty much the same story with me except we use SQL Server 2014

I have the same error. I suspect it has something to do with my nightly full database backups.

Can you guys share what benefits you get by having this type of installation?

However, the return results for CHANGED ROWS says 18460 rows. That is exactly the same result I got following your example. However, isn't only 3994 rows actually changed...

Note: The last section of the Condition expression manages NULLs. This is but one method of addressing NULLs when comparing column values in SSIS Expression Language. NULL-handling in SSIS Expression...