July 26, 2008 at 1:21 pm
Comments posted to this topic are about the item The More Things Change ...
July 28, 2008 at 1:52 am
In a previous career, I undertook a lot of market research in the paper industry. The advent of the electronic office was going to really hit the demand for paper. Oh yeah ???
July 28, 2008 at 6:29 am
We were all told in the 90's that the need for computer technology would grow exponentially for the foreseeable future. This implied that the need for the people needed to make the computers do their thing would also grow in the same way. The problem was that we were only adding technically literate people with simple addition, not exponentially. Companies were getting afraid because they technically could not pay us what we were really worth, given a slowly growing pool of personell vs a skyrocketing need. The principle of Supply and Demand was working in our favor.
Then someone figured out how to run wires over to other countries, and the corporations figured they didn't need us anymore. Hence the 'bubble burst' a few years back. Hello unemployment for a lot of computer people.
However, the need for the machines is continuing to grow exponentially, so even with all of the developers in other countries, the market is heating up again. I'm hearing predictions that competent people who are willing to keep up with changing technology will have no problems with employment. I'm not sure how long it will last, but right now the prospects are looking good...
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July 28, 2008 at 6:32 am
I do believe that we're making buggy whips and at some point a horseless carriage is going to drive by, but it's not in sight at the moment, despite the doom sayers.
This weekend we had a production system launch an alert every five minutes. Drilling down, I found a vendor supplied database that had a table on it that was 61 columns wide, every single column was a varchar(125). It's just like you said, the servers are easy to install, but what is supposed to go in them is still evidently a mystery. It made me feel better about my employment status as a development DBA for another couple of years.
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July 28, 2008 at 7:03 am
I think there will always be opportunities for competent Technical people, because no matter how simple a computer or software product is to use it still needs to be designed, developed and managed. The role a DBA plays in that will probably change as it has over the time I have been in IT. It may be the DBA job becomes more of a monitoring role for data services on the "Cloud" like SQL Server Data Services or possibly monitoring a "mirror" of cloud data to a local system for redundancy. Who knows where it will end up, but there will always be a need for someone to make it work faster and reliably.
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July 28, 2008 at 7:18 am
I agree with SomeGuy - you have to be willing to keep up with technology. If you're the kind of person who wants to learn something in college and then do that thing for the next 50 years, take up accounting or law - technology isn't for you.
On another note: Who made the claim SQL Server 7 was so easy you wouldn't need a DBA?
:{> Andy
Andy Leonard, Chief Data Engineer, Enterprise Data & Analytics
July 28, 2008 at 7:20 am
The more any profession changes the more its members are ensured a future that cannot be automated.
July 28, 2008 at 7:39 am
I think until the machines can cultivate and develop us humans, a la Matrix, then us lowly DBAs have nothing to worry about. 🙂
July 28, 2008 at 8:36 am
I believe the Microsoft touted that in some early marketing for SQL 7. I've have to go research the exact wordings, but I had a lot of friends asking me why they should hire me or anyone else.
July 28, 2008 at 8:48 am
Andy Leonard (7/28/2008)
I agree with SomeGuy - you have to be willing to keep up with technology. If you're the kind of person who wants to learn something in college and then do that thing for the next 50 years, take up accounting or law - technology isn't for you.Andy
I think this is the key thing to remember. The job functions currently performed by the DBA may become more automated, or they may be able to be handled remotely and so outsourced, but someone has to be on hand to install, check for fried connections (or deal with flooded hardware if you live near flood zones), or handle the higher level design functions, etc.
But don't count on all the boomers retiring. If you have read anything other than tech manuals lately you may have heard that people are working longer, deferring retirement, or working part time so they can keep their health benefits (or just keep up with the bills). Among my personal friends we all agree we want to work until we are at least 70, maybe older. None of us can imagine dealing with the boredom of sitting around the house watching (ugh!) daytime TV.
July 28, 2008 at 9:36 am
I started in the App development field writing COBOL and 360 JCL on a 360/20. By the time we were on the 360/165 we were told that the days were numbered in the IT field and it was only a matter of the silver bullet application that was going to come and put us all out of work.
I wrote in absolute, 360 assembler and macro assembler and over 15 languages since. There has always been a demand for the skills I have and I have always felt that I could get a job anywhere any time.
The reason I have felt this way is not that i am that good, it is that there has always been a demand for IT professionals who will work. If you perform and produce there is always a place. And if necessary I have seen organizations create places for good solid IT talent.
After 36 years in the field I can now say that there is nothing that is going to come along and put us all out of work. THings are in the works to put more of us to work, we just do not know what they all are yet.
The demand for skilled people who work in IT will stop once technology has done it all completely, and that will not happen.
Steve you are right, they are still about the same except for this, there are more opportunities now to do it right or to do it wrong, and we can get into more trouble faster then ever.
Miles...
Not all gray hairs are Dinosaurs!
July 28, 2008 at 10:32 am
I mostly agree. No matter how much we "technologically evolve", we're technically always in the same boat. The things around us change while we stay the same - possibly this is the root of the saying.
And technological evolution doesn't necessarily constitute an improvement.
July 28, 2008 at 1:09 pm
FWIW In 1963 I was told not to go into programming because COBOL would enable users (especially accountants) to write their own applications.
July 28, 2008 at 2:40 pm
Grant Fritchey (7/28/2008)
It's just like you said, the servers are easy to install, but what is supposed to go in them is still evidently a mystery. It made me feel better about my employment status as a development DBA for another couple of years.
Indeed. That's my impression of the market down here too. Lots of people who can do the job, providing nothing goes wrong. A much smaller number that can do it really well.
Since I've just made the jump to consulting, that doesn't bother me as much as it used to. :hehe:
Gail Shaw
Microsoft Certified Master: SQL Server, MVP, M.Sc (Comp Sci)
SQL In The Wild: Discussions on DB performance with occasional diversions into recoverability
July 28, 2008 at 2:47 pm
If/when my job and skills become obsolete, I'll learn something new. I have never understood people who demand that automating their job not be done, because they prefer doing something familiar over learning something new. Maybe I just haven't had the experiences necessary to appreciate that, but I don't.
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