August 7, 2007 at 8:30 am
As society and technology matures into more formalized processes, dependability increases resulting risk averse users. This issue is related to the IT Cowboy article from May this year.
Good points Mike.
August 7, 2007 at 9:47 am
There is almost never an all-or-nothing risk. It's always to some degree.
As I get older, there's less and less black and white. It's always some degree of gray in there.
August 7, 2007 at 4:36 pm
Risk vs. reward is always a difficult subject, and not always about having the best information or making the best decision. Sometimes you just get lucky or unlucky.
Take the example of Christopher Columbus. He thought that he could reach the East Indies by sailing West across the Atlantic about 3,000 miles because he believed that the Earth was much smaller than it actually is. The Greek mathematician Eratosthenes of Cyrene had measured the size of the Earth fairly accurately around 200 BC, so scholars in the Portuguese court advised the king not to fund Columbus, because they correctly believed that the distance was around 14,000 miles, too far for a ship of that day to sail with the supplies it could carry.
So the result was that the voyage of Columbus was successful, not because he was right, or even achieved his original purpose, but because he took a risk and it paid off in an unexpected way. The Portuguese lost out to the Spanish not because they made an incorrect decision with the information they had, but just because they were unlucky.
So, to put it in different terms: Fortune favors the bold, but so does misfortune.
August 7, 2007 at 4:45 pm
bold or brash?
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