The COVID-19 Impact

  • The problem folks, is multi-pronged.

    1. As Jeff pointed out, you can be asymptomatic but be spreading the virus.
    2. THERE IS NO VACCINE YET, so it's NOT "just like the flu", because the majority of the population takes a flu vaccine regularly. If your body does contract the flu, you likely have antibodies ready to help fight it off, so it's not as impactful. That won't happen with COVID-19, nobody has caught this one before. That means you will get sicker, and anybody who has issues that make it harder to fight off is at a high risk.
    3. People are gross. Just because you wash your hands doesn't mean the last person did, and especially if you're out mingling with the public, touching *anything* can be an issue. Or walking through a cloud of sneeze/cough from someone who has it (whether they know they have it or not)
    4. Science is comfortably aware of the flu virus and how it operates. We don't know enough about this one yet. Will it die down in the warmer months like the flu? We don't know. How easily is it transmitted? We're learning more every day, but we don't know. They think sewer pipes in buildings in China were an issue, that it actually SPREAD that way. Is that due to hygiene issues in those buildings due to different building standards? Or is that something we're at risk of here? Don't know. Hospitals seemed to actually be one of the most likely places to contract COVID-19, because of all the above reasons

    Should we be in full-blown panic? No, of course not. But, to say people are "over-reacting" by closing offices/facilities/large conferences when that is the only real known way to combat the spread (reduce the possible footprint) at the moment? that seems conceited.

    Once there's a vaccine, the answer becomes "everyone should be vaccinated" JUST LIKE THE FLU. We're not there yet.

     

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  • we've been laughing at this all day

    https://www.nhs.uk/conditions/coronavirus-covid-19/

    particularly since I'm recovering from flu and pneumonia

    stay at home

    not go to work, school or public places

    not use public transport or taxis

    ask friends, family members or delivery services to do errands for you

    try to avoid visitors to your home – it's OK for friends, family or delivery drivers to drop off food

    I use the bus for work, so i'm staying at home eating takeaways and watching netflix

    it made us all chuckle that delivery drivers are allowed to contract the virus

    MVDBA

  • MVDBA (Mike Vessey) wrote:

    in 1918 the spanish flu (influenza A) killed somewhere up to 100 million people. we aren't there yet πŸ™‚

    Keep in mind that the mortality rate of the Spanish influenza was 3% (i.e. 3% of those infected die). This is less than current fatality rate for COVID-19.Β  So unless you contain the spread of the infection, you might very well be heading for the same catastrophic death toll.

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Your lack of planning does not constitute an emergency on my part...unless you're my manager...or a director and above...or a really loud-spoken end-user..All right - what was my emergency again?

  • someone mentioned today that office phones are disease carriers... if someone answers my phone while i'm away then I catch their germs.

    As a practical joke 5 or 6 years ago we put jam on the bit that you hold to your ear (for a very friendly co worker that had played many many tricks on me) - he walked around all day with jam on his head... shows how easy it is to spread stuff around

    MVDBA

  • MVDBA (Mike Vessey) wrote:

    in 1918 the spanish flu (influenza A) killed somewhere up to 100 million people. we aren't there yet πŸ™‚

     

    I think the bigger issue is the high variability in case fatality rates for certain groups - especially those over 70 years of age, and men of those ages. Those fatality rates are like 8-15%. There is a good chance this won't turn out like the Spanish Flu of 1918, but at the same time it could hit hard in nations with older populations, like the U.S., and in particular where lots of older men already have health issues (again, the U.S. seems vulnerable in this regard).

    See also:

    Nevertheless, the 1918 influenza pandemic is estimated to have had a case-fatality ratio of less than 5% but had an enormous impact due to widespread transmission, so there is no room for complacency.

    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-death-rate/

    -- webrunner

    • This reply was modified 4 years, 8 months ago by  webrunner. Reason: Corrected case fatality rate info based on https://www.sciencealert.com/covid-19-s-death-rate-is-higher-than-thought-but-it-should-drop

    -------------------
    A SQL query walks into a bar and sees two tables. He walks up to them and asks, "Can I join you?"
    Ref.: http://tkyte.blogspot.com/2009/02/sql-joke.html

  • Doing the math based a world population of 7,700,000,000 people

    • An estimated infection rate of ~40 -- ~70% infection rate [3,080,000,000 {3.080 Billion} to 5,390,000,000 {5.39 Billion} people infected
    • AnΒ  estimated ~3.4% mortality rate of 104,720,000 {104.72 million} to {183,260,000} people will die

    As was also stated earlier in this thread, worldwide medical knowledge and treatment are light years ahead of 1918 / 1919 Spanish Flu, but we also need to take into account

    • The world population increase in the last 100+ years
    • The percentage increase in the population that travels, the frequency of their travel and the mode of travel
    • The change in demographics as it relates to people worldwide that are outright against any form of vaccination regardless of the 1health risks to others around them.

    Individually, these #'s look particularly staggering but when they are reviewed in full context of population -> infected -> Fatal it is quite easy to see just how bad this has the potential to be if everyone is not extremely careful.

    A good example of the simplest things that we do on a regular basis such as filling a vehicle up with gasoline, going to a grocery store and handling fresh produce or even simply going to church and touching the pews can be all it takes for someone who isn't exhibiting any symptoms from unknowingly spreading the virus.

     

     

  • Lots in info out there, and I wouldn't panic, but I do think we ought to be cautious. I'll be extra careful in public spaces, disinfecting things that lots of people likely touch, wash my hands more, but otherwise, I'll go about my life. I don't contact many > 60 year olds, so I'm not overly worried about spreading things.

    If you are at risk, or you deal with older people, be extra careful and cautious. This might not be much to worry about, but it's silly to not take precautions when you can.

  • I deal with an older person every day... me! πŸ˜€Β  I can't avoid me even if I turn around wicked quick.Β  I can also tell you that you shouldn't try that over 60... I think I snapped a rib or something. πŸ˜€

     

    --Jeff Moden


    RBAR is pronounced "ree-bar" and is a "Modenism" for Row-By-Agonizing-Row.
    First step towards the paradigm shift of writing Set Based code:
    ________Stop thinking about what you want to do to a ROW... think, instead, of what you want to do to a COLUMN.

    Change is inevitable... Change for the better is not.


    Helpful Links:
    How to post code problems
    How to Post Performance Problems
    Create a Tally Function (fnTally)

  • webrunner wrote:

    MVDBA (Mike Vessey) wrote:

    in 1918 the spanish flu (influenza A) killed somewhere up to 100 million people. we aren't there yet πŸ™‚

    it could hit hard in nations with older populations, like the U.S., and in particular where lots of older men already have health issues (again, the U.S. seems vulnerable in this regard).

    -- webrunner

    I don't know anyone's political opinions, but please let Donald trump be on of the few πŸ™‚ and for the UK Boris Johnson and Nigel Farage

    MVDBA

  • Get the best information you can.

    About COVID-19: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/who-china-joint-mission-on-covid-19-final-report.pdf

     

    WHO situation report: https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports/20200304-sitrep-44-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=783b4c9d_2

     

    WHO Q&A: https://www.who.int/news-room/q-a-detail/q-a-coronaviruses

     

    COVID-19 mortality rate by age (seeking a better source): https://www.sciencealert.com/covid-19-s-death-rate-is-higher-than-thought-but-it-should-drop

     

     

    • This reply was modified 4 years, 8 months ago by  ChrisM@Work.
    β€œWrite the query the simplest way. If through testing it becomes clear that the performance is inadequate, consider alternative query forms.” - Gail Shaw

    For fast, accurate and documented assistance in answering your questions, please read this article.
    Understanding and using APPLY, (I) and (II) Paul White
    Hidden RBAR: Triangular Joins / The "Numbers" or "Tally" Table: What it is and how it replaces a loop Jeff Moden

  • Ralph Hightower wrote:

    MVDBA (Mike Vessey) wrote:

    Rod at work wrote:

    I tend to think that COVID-19 isn't as serious as many people think it is. I'm not minimizing it. People have died and that's very sad and serious. However, people have died from other illnesses (this year's flu, etc.) which either no one is concerned about or it no longer hits their radar.

    Regardless of what I think about COVID-19, its very clear that a lot of people are taking it much more seriously. The cancelling of gatherings such as the Mobile World Congress and Microsoft's MVP Summit (although that will still continue as a virtual event, so I'm told) proves that people, companies, government agencies, etc. are taking COVID-19 very seriously.

    In some respects I think this will be a good thing. Not people getting sick and some dying, but the reaction that people, companies, government agencies, etc. will take to cope with it. I've heard that Slack's stock ratings have gone up as people/companies are starting to use it more. I imagine the same will be true with Microsoft Teams. Working from home may actually see an increase, which for me would be great! However, some places are going to be severely challenged. For example, in my state both public and private sector companies and organizations have resisted vigorously allowing their employees to work remotely or from home. (I learned this from TEKSystem recruiters who do annual surveys of job markets.) That being the case, by and large they're not ready for this demand on their infrastructures, let alone their policies allowing for this. Hopefully, such places will adapt quickly.

    In the UK we have had a few hospitals closed and I think a few schools - total overreaction - and closing a hospital makes ABSOLUTELY NO SENSE.. that is the place you go to get fixed.

    I blame airplaines - they are metal tubes with air circulation - I've never got off an aircraft without a cold or something that the kid 2 seats in front of me had

    DBAs and developers are fortunate in that, in many cases, we can work remotely.

    I'll grant that this is off topic, but FWIW, DBA's in my state (NM) are under the same restrictions as anyone else, as far as working either remotely or from home. Not allowed. I do know both DBAs and developers in my state who do work from home; none of them work for any NM company/agency/governmental-body. All of them work for companies/agencies/governmental-bodies out of state.

    Kindest Regards, Rod Connect with me on LinkedIn.

  • This is one of those situations where the severity of a threat is dependent upon the public's reaction to it. Stock market crashes, riots, political elections influenced by fake pandemic news, and shortages of food and medical supplies due to hoarding - these are the real threats we're facing.

    I'm too busy to participate in a global pandemic, so I'll sit this one out. I can't get infected when my head is buried in programming code.

     

    "Do not seek to follow in the footsteps of the wise. Instead, seek what they sought." - Matsuo Basho

  • Eric M Russell wrote:

    ...

    I'm too busy to participate in a global pandemic, so I'll sit this one out. I can't get infected when my head is buried in programming code.

    LOL

    -------------------
    A SQL query walks into a bar and sees two tables. He walks up to them and asks, "Can I join you?"
    Ref.: http://tkyte.blogspot.com/2009/02/sql-joke.html

  •  

    Thanks for these links!

     

    - - webrunner

    -------------------
    A SQL query walks into a bar and sees two tables. He walks up to them and asks, "Can I join you?"
    Ref.: http://tkyte.blogspot.com/2009/02/sql-joke.html

  • Well, I'm cancelling my trip next week. Actually, it's already cancelled.

    My wife and I decided that the risk of becoming carriers isn't worth it without a strong reason to go. She works with a number of > 60 yr old clients and we would be devastated if we infected them. I'm disappointed, as I like going, but it's the right thing to do.

    We don't worry about getting sick. We might, and it might suck, but we're fairly healthy, so likely it would just be the flu. More we worry about spreading.

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