May 1, 2013 at 5:41 am
Steve Jones - SSC Editor (5/1/2013)
CO is leading the division, so I'm not sure how much we count a month of baseball. A few year ago the Yanks were 10 out at the All Star break and made the playoffs.
I hear ya Steve... so many folks say half way through the season stick a fork in this team or that team.... I say... it ain't over till its over...
I remember the last time the Marlins won the WS... they rolled into Cincinnati and swept the Reds right before the All Star break... they were 10 games below .500 at the All Star break... ended up being the Wild Card and winning the World Series....
Back in the late 90s the Angels were like 11 games behind the Mariners with like 15 games left in the season and on the last day of the season won the division.... Meltdowns and hot streaks happen.
May 8, 2013 at 11:44 am
Went to Yankees/Rockies last night. First game in two years, and almost a rainout. It drizzled, and then came down hard almost the entire game. We only watched 2 innings, and then the last 2 batters from our seats.
Still it was fun to go with a friend.
A pitcher's battle most of the game, if you can believe it.
May 9, 2013 at 8:24 am
Nats/Tigers game last night. Pretty much the same atmosphere. Started out raining then slowed down to a misty drizzle. Game was delayed an hour but I got to see Mr. Triple Crown and Prince Fielder play! It stopped drizzling just before game time and it turned out to be a beautiful night.
During the first couple innings I checked out the scoreboard for other games going on and I saw the Twins were up on Boston 11-5 in the bottom of the 2nd... I had a strange feeling the night wasn't going to end well.
May 16, 2013 at 2:57 pm
Steve Jones - SSC Editor (5/1/2013)
CO is leading the division, so I'm not sure how much we count a month of baseball. A few year ago the Yanks were 10 out at the All Star break and made the playoffs.
Well they're coming back down to Earth now. Glad they came to Wrigley the past 3 days, the Cubs managed to take 2 out of 3 and climb out of the basement of the NL Central for the time being!
June 5, 2013 at 9:46 am
I used to think it was inevitable, but now I question whether A-Rod will actually catch Willie Mays
He's very close, but it's possible he'll never play again.
I assume Jeter will get back this year, and move up to #9 on the all time list, but how much further? Not sure he'll come back and make much progress up the historical lists next year.
And my Rockies are doing OK. Won one last night, 31 on the year. My teammate in the old timers league thinks they won't win 70. I think they could finish at .500
June 5, 2013 at 10:00 am
Steve Jones - SSC Editor (6/5/2013)
I used to think it was inevitable, but now I question whether A-Rod will actually catch Willie MaysHe's very close, but it's possible he'll never play again.
I assume Jeter will get back this year, and move up to #9 on the all time list, but how much further? Not sure he'll come back and make much progress up the historical lists next year.
And my Rockies are doing OK. Won one last night, 31 on the year. My teammate in the old timers league thinks they won't win 70. I think they could finish at .500
Yes, that is quite the interesting story that came out yesterday. I am curious to see how this all plays out, especially with Braun and A-Rod. Watching guys climb up the all time HR list is interesting too. After watching last night's Cubs-Angels game, I'm convinced that if Pujols played every game against the Cubs, he would easily have over 1,000 homers by the time his career is over. He has hit over 11% of all of his home runs against them. That is amazing.
June 17, 2013 at 1:57 pm
Derek Jeter, "Mr. Clucth". David Ortiz, "he's a great clutch hitter".
What does "clutch" mean? Is there any evidence of this term manifesting itself in a game?
This is a term that the book Errors and Fouls by: Peter Handrinos discusses. Mr. Handrinos takes the stance that there is no real evidence to backup the use of the term "clutch", that it is a myth that players can be clutch anything. As an example he uses Derek Jeter with his decades playing the game and most likely a first ballot hall of famer, he shreds his stats looking for instances deemed to be clutch and searching for an increase in performance by the player. Now, forgive me for not actually having the numbers he sites as it was a baseball book I picked up in the store while having my car worked on. He mentions batting statistics for situations that are considered clutch. Statistics comparison for innings 1-3 (not clutch), 4-6, 7-9 (clutch), Runners in scoring position, batting statistics in April vs September, playoff statistics, world series statistics, etc. He finds that his stats don't change very much. That no matter what the situation, his average doesn't go up and, statistically, he doesn't play any better. He performs the same as the lead off in the first inning as he does with a 3-2 count, 2 outs, man on third, bottom of the 9th. He renders the same statistics for trivial games in April as he does for late September wild-card runs. He doesn't increase production of base hits in playoffs compared to regular the regular season. And he sites stats that go on and on.
So what does "clutch" mean and does it exist in sports in general, not just baseball? Perhaps "clutch" would be better described as being able to handle mental pressure while performing normally and not necessarily performing at a higher level during, as the book sites from a study, "high leverage situations".
It was an interesting read. It made me ponder things like statistics, steroids, and modern gameplay complaints.
(did you know the average game today lasts 20 minutes more than the average game in the late 1800's! For all those people that say the game is too slow. For as many breaks as we have for commercials, pitching changes, injuries, 7th inning stretch, mound visits, etc. That's not too bad!)
June 17, 2013 at 3:13 pm
I knew I'd read something similar. I found this:
Clutch = (WPA / pLI) – WPA/LI
from: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/clutch/
I think there is something to it. I've seen plenty of people perform well under pressure and others wilt. My little girl's volleyball team last year played great all year, and when they were pressed in the championship game, they made more mistakes, folder, and got very emotional.
I have to say when I bat as the first batter of the inning, it's much easier and I'm more relaxed than when there are 2 outs, runners on 2nd and third, and I'm up. I faced that yesterday, and while I didn't perform better in either one (grounders in both), I felt more in the former situation.
This is one of those areas that I thought Tim Tebow had something going when he played QB for the Broncos. In his winning streak there were more than a few players that struggled or made mistakes in the last 2 minutes of the game and he didn't. He might not be a great talent, but he plays well under pressure, or he's "clutch".
June 19, 2013 at 8:37 am
Yeah, that's the problem I now have with "clutch", it is meaningless. To try and have a formula for defining a clutch score based on probabilities and leverage indices, c'mon. Those are both made up subjective stats as well. It is building a skyscraper on a jello foundation.
A lot of the clutch debate centers around "high leverage" situations. What exactly is that? It's an assumption, to use your experience, that your at-bat with 2 on and 2 out is somehow more meaningful than your 1st inning leadoff at-bat. The problem with that assumption is that there's no way to actually know that one situation is more or less meaningful unless analyzing past events.
They site in that link that 1 in 6 players have an OBP increase by 6 points in clutch situations and 1 in 6 have a decrease of the same amount. Really? 6 thousandths (6 tenths of 1%?) determines a players clutchiness? They pose the question, in a clutch situation would you rather have A-Rod (higher clutch rating) or Jeter (higher overall BA) at the plate?
I think that's what makes a player clutch great, to be able to perform normally in "high leverage" situations. To have the ability to be indifferent about the pressures of the current situation. I'd take Jeter every time.
Tebow... New England's newest tight end.
June 19, 2013 at 8:50 am
What is up with Oakland! They are tearing it up, I'm unsure if they're really good or Texas and LAA are really bad. I know pujols was struggling but one man a team does not make.
June 20, 2013 at 6:13 am
calvo (6/19/2013)
Yeah, that's the problem I now have with "clutch", it is meaningless. To try and have a formula for defining a clutch score based on probabilities and leverage indices, c'mon. Those are both made up subjective stats as well. It is building a skyscraper on a jello foundation.A lot of the clutch debate centers around "high leverage" situations. What exactly is that? It's an assumption, to use your experience, that your at-bat with 2 on and 2 out is somehow more meaningful than your 1st inning leadoff at-bat. The problem with that assumption is that there's no way to actually know that one situation is more or less meaningful unless analyzing past events.
They site in that link that 1 in 6 players have an OBP increase by 6 points in clutch situations and 1 in 6 have a decrease of the same amount. Really? 6 thousandths (6 tenths of 1%?) determines a players clutchiness? They pose the question, in a clutch situation would you rather have A-Rod (higher clutch rating) or Jeter (higher overall BA) at the plate?
I think that's what makes a player
clutchgreat, to be able to perform normally in "high leverage" situations. To have the ability to be indifferent about the pressures of the current situation. I'd take Jeter every time.Tebow... New England's newest tight end.
Is this that much different from a save? I'd argue that 7th+ inning hits with men on base and being within a run or two of the lead is a clutch situation. I think we could define it, or at least come up with something to use for the stat. right now I'm not sure the authors have done that.
June 20, 2013 at 6:32 am
Sure, providing a solid definition for the term is tough. Until it is proven that runs late in the game are more important than runs early in the game, I'll do my best to avoid using that term.
Oh, yeah, saves. It's unfortunate how trivial stats define a players reputation, value, and ability. A save means you didn't give up the lead when the game ended. A blown save makes no difference if it was a fielding error, inherited runners, or an earned run. Just like simple batting average, it's not a great stat to be the sole determining factor of a players' ability to produce.
I remember playing Major League Baseball on NES. You would choose the best pitcher by snagging the lowest ERA and the best batter by selecting the highest AVG. If only things could be that easy 🙂
June 20, 2013 at 6:41 am
I don't love the save definition, because it doesn't include fielding.
However, it's not the runs later are more important, but the situation changes and it is harder to perform in the 8th if you are down 2 and there are 2 on than if you are up 6 and the bases are loaded.
July 8, 2013 at 7:24 am
I say trade him.
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