April 30, 2008 at 1:07 pm
I am starting to have a problem with some of these dedicated devices that are just small computers. We have iPods, GPS Nav, smart phones, hand held video games (PS2, etc) and now Kindle. Yes, it has a neat display and you can read books on it. But how long do you think it will be until all of these devices are just replaced with smaller portable computers that perform all of these functions? These are all just computers, but they are specialized. These devices are just temporary until hand held computers that can perform all of these functions are feasible.
If you just have a handheld computer with a decent form factor, fast processor, and decent storage capacity, you can use it for music, games, GPS, communications, etc. This is not too far off. I can't wait, because I need to wear a fishing vest to hold all of these gadgets.
So I think Kindle, the iPod and all of these devices will be a thing of the past, and we will all have intelligent computers like Dr. Theopolus from Buck Rogers (you know, the canteen shaped AI computer that Twinkie carried around). Good riddance. Computers are supposed to be the universal machine, but since the performance we want in a small size isn't quite there yet, we have specialized small computers for every little task. Very inefficient, wasteful, but it's what we need to do for now, I guess. I too own an iPod, a GPS, a cell phone, etc. I can't wait until I can take all of this stuff in one package, and not have 5 wall warts in the power strip to charge these things, and not have to remember to charge them or take them with me...
There are already some promising handheld computers on the market. Not quite there yet, but not too far off. There is a company that has a laser-projected keyboard, so a handheld computer can be small, and still allow for decent data entry.
So yeah, I would do without the Kindle for now, because in a few years you will probably end up chucking it out. If you are someone who travels a lot and reads a lot, like the thread originator, it may be a good option, but be prepared for it to be obsolete in a few years. But isn't that true with everything? I have been buying less and less technical books over the years. Being a J2EE guy that gets pulled into the occasional SQL Server issue, I'd have to say, most of the J2EE information is online, especially with open source tools. I haven't bought a technical book in 3 years. So Kindle has very little to offer me.
April 30, 2008 at 1:11 pm
Read on my i-pod? Listen to an audiobook? I simply can't imagine doing the first, and I don't do the second because I prefer listening to music when I'm in my car. Also, I've never owned a PDA. I think this is a matter of personal preference and not a right or wrong thing. This will actually be the only technical gadget I own, besides my i-pod which was a Christmas gift two years ago.
I'm looking forward to getting my Kindle Friday*. Like Steve Jones said, I too frequently have 2 - 3 books going at the same time and now I'll be able to carry just one device but flip back and forth between books.
*I would've done the overnight shipping, but the two-day shipping was free. I can't wait to get it!
April 30, 2008 at 1:14 pm
I would love a Kindle but until many if not most tech books are available it will not be useful to me. I currently 'read' most on my fiction as audio books but I would love to have a library of all of the tech books I have available in Kindle format. I need to 'see' a tech book (diagrams, code examples, etc.) and I do not like to read them on the small iPhone screen.
I would really love the Safari library on a Kindle so I would not have to boot up the laptop to reference the books.
-greg
April 30, 2008 at 2:07 pm
If I could get one of Safari or Books24x7 or PDFs on the Kindle, I would probably go for it.
As far as novels etc, it will still make more sense to request from the library or buy used on Amazon/ebay/half.com and then re-sell - I'm not going to re-read most of those.
April 30, 2008 at 2:13 pm
My point is not that one should listen to books on an iPod. I probably didn't explain it well (and I don't know if the response is directed to my comments). Over the next few years, you will see a convergence of functionality on handheld devices. Ultimately, they will be micro-laptops. We see this today with the iPhone and the multitude of phones that play music, video, email and do GPS nav. My LG Chocolate that I got for free can do all of these things, but obviously it isn't something I would read a book on.
I find it difficult to believe that in 3 years people will be carrying around a small computer that does nothing but display text (the Kindle). It is neat that you can buy books on the device, but the proliferation of WiMax will make it possible on many handheld devices.
Computers are, after all, a universal machine. That same Intel box that hosts your SQL Server can be used to play video games, email, talk over VOIP, watch movies over Netflix, etc. Don't you all do this on your production SQL Server boxes? You should, those machines tend to be really fast 😉
I just have a problem with these devices that just do one thing. It is inconvenient to carry around 3-4 devices and remember to charge them.
The Kindle will be a great buy for some avid readers, but I think it is more of a novelty that will fade into oblivion, unless Kindle 2.0 is a multi-function platform. A few people I know say it will be the next iPod. I don't think enough people read books for this to happen. I think the next iPod will be the next iPod 😉
Ultimately, it makes sense to leverage an OS, be it Windows Mobile or Linux, and install the functionality you want on a handheld device as software. The fact that Kindle moves away from the future of mobile computing seems to forecast its demise, in my opinion.
Convergence of functionality on handhelds is the future, and who wants to carry around 3 or 4 one-function devices? To me, Kindle just doesn't make much sense.
April 30, 2008 at 2:55 pm
cbellur (4/30/2008)
My point is not that one should listen to books on an iPod. I probably didn't explain it well (and I don't know if the response is directed to my comments). Over the next few years, you will see a convergence of functionality on handheld devices. Ultimately, they will be micro-laptops. We see this today with the iPhone and the multitude of phones that play music, video, email and do GPS nav. My LG Chocolate that I got for free can do all of these things, but obviously it isn't something I would read a book on.I find it difficult to believe that in 3 years people will be carrying around a small computer that does nothing but display text (the Kindle). It is neat that you can buy books on the device, but the proliferation of WiMax will make it possible on many handheld devices....
cbellur, I interpreted your ipod comment that you could READ books on your ipod, not that you could listen to them. Just thinking about reading from the tiny ipod screen was more than my mind could imagine! I'm glad you cleared that up!
And I'm sure that a few years down the road, the ebook could become an expensive paperweight, with a mini-laptop or handheld device replacing it. When that day comes, I'll be just as excited as the next person.
In the meantime, the Kindle will be doing, for me, something that nothing I currently own can do. I don't have a laptop of my own. Even if I did, opening it up and balancing it on my knees or a tabletop just to read sounds awkward.
April 30, 2008 at 3:40 pm
There are some handheld devices out there that are pretty close to what I am talking about already. I was at my stylist and while I was waiting for my hair color to set, I was reading an article in Maxim about the new micro laptops. Asus has a Linux based device (EEE PC) that is tiny and costs less than $500 (about the price of a kindle) and it can do a lot of things. It can even display text and pictures, in color... When WiMax is everywhere, you can use such a device as a phone, browser, email client, and just about anything a computer can do (if I could remote to my servers, I would be in nirvana!). But yeah, we're not quite there yet. At least not in the desirable form factor. But this EEE PC is pretty impressive, both in terms of form factor and price. Maybe my "3 years off" is too conservative...
So when you think laptop of the future (or even some contemporary laptops), keep in mind, it won't have the bulky form factor of, say, a Dell Latitude... They also need better battery life (sorry Apple Airbook...) These devices keep getting closer to a full-featured PC that you can take anywhere, hopefully without a man-purse and a large extension cord.
I also kind of wonder why Amazon strayed from html and browsers and went with this proprietary XML format for publishing books. It allows them to use a simpler client, but I think they could have done everything in html or .pdf. What is the deal with a proprietary book format? I think this could be handled by existing technology. Even if their client couldn't display a full html page, they could transform xhtml into something that the device could display.
The re-inventing the wheel seems annoying, because it is something I see all too often in my professional life. Perhaps I am missing something, and maybe someone can explain the value of this proprietary XML publishing format? Of course, XML can be transformed into just about anything. I once turned a 40 page open office doc into a small dog. 😉 Seems more like a business decision to lock other vendors out. They learned well from Apple, except they don't have the cool marketing that will get millions of people to buy it.
I would have liked Amazon to create a standard that would open a market for lots of different vendors of e-book readers. That would have given their service much more longevity. It would have been a lot more cricket too. I say this as an avid Amazon consumer... I buy virtually everything from them. But the Kindle strategy seems to lock people out, which is counter to the open strategy that made Amazon so successful in the first place.
I don't want to dampen your stoked-ness on your new Kindle. If you read a lot, it will give you years of service. I can see the appeal, but I don't see a future in the device. I could say the same thing about the Sony Bravia TV I just bought...
I just hear a lot of oohing and aaahing about the Kindle, and I just don't quite get it. A one-function-per-device model is simply not the future, so I can't possibly see it survive for more than a few years.
April 30, 2008 at 3:49 pm
You bring up some good points about new devices, but keep in mind one thing. The Kindle isn't designed to be a computer. It's designed to compete with books and the e-ink technology has a long way to go to handle other things.
A computer tends to use a lot of power as well to do those general tasks and is overkill sometimes for a simple purpose. Not that I want to carry a bunch of devices, but I have an iPod and a phone because the Windows Mobile phone doesn't do music that well. The iPod does.
The Kindle is an interesting idea since it could solve another problem. It doesn't give me another device, it takes the place of physical books I carry around that aren't that easy to transport at times.
Convergence will get better, but the all in one devices sometimes to everything half-a**ed. Look at games. The Halo on the PC doesn't work anywhere near as well as HALO on the XBOX.
April 30, 2008 at 5:04 pm
Two things turn me off about both the Kindle and Sony: price and DRM. I suppose they are still technically first generation devices, though the Newton and Palm Pilots (and now WinCE machines) are definitely functional book readers.
I used my Palm TX (and my previous Vx) as ereaders and was pleased with them. For me, the issue of DRM has never been a factor as I am quite happy downloading from Project Guttenberg for free. But it's the concept of DRM that bugs me: if I buy I book, I want to be able to sell it, or to give it to a friend. I'm not going to send out a hundred copies of it to everyone for whom I have an email address. It's the same as I did years ago when I gave software to a friend of mine to try out. The vendor did not supply functional trials (this was 25+ years ago), and I trusted my friend to delete it or buy it after he played with it for a while. In every case, as far as I recall, he bought his own copy.
When the Kindle and Sony get down to about $200, I'll buy one, and it will have mostly Project Guttenberg books on it.
By the way, Baen has a large free library of science fiction online and available. If you buy hardbacks of David Weber, they frequently throw in a CD of previous works in html and various ebook formats. And right now, Tor.com is sending out links to HTML and PDF versions of some good scifi. The Cybook looks good, but again, still too pricey: I'm a definite cheapskate.
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[font="Arial"]Knowledge is of two kinds. We know a subject ourselves or we know where we can find information upon it. --Samuel Johnson[/font]
April 30, 2008 at 5:16 pm
I read through all the posts, and one ereader hasn't been mentioned.. I am in Australia, so the Kindle is a no go for me. But I found out about an ebook reader that has heaps more functionality than the kindle.. Uses e-ink, has a wireless connection so if there is a hot spot you can download any content from anywhere on the web. You can take notes on it, download crosswords or sudoku, and do them on it!
It is the iliad from iRex technologies.. It may be the best in this category, but unfortunately is cost prohibitive..
http://www.irextechnologies.com/products/iliad
If I had the money, I would buy this one hands down!
My one question.. If you drop a book while reading in the bath, you can eventually dry it out. If you drop an E-Reader?????
April 30, 2008 at 6:30 pm
Right now computers use a lot of power, but with OLED display technology, flash drives, etc, it won't be long before a palmtop PC can be small, fast, have a lot of memory, and a long lasting battery. OLED displays are extremely expensive, but they are thinner and far more efficient than existing LED displays. They will come down in price. Factor in the fact that processors are getting more and more powerful and using less and less power.
The Kindle isn't designed to be a computer. It's designed to compete with books and the e-ink technology has a long way to go to handle other things.
But it is a computer -- a computer that can do nothing other than display black and white text and graphics and order e-publications from a proprietary distribution channel.
Since it is a computer, a general computing device can replace it. It is not a case of playing Halo on a palm top pc. We're talking text and graphics here... If a competitor like Barnes and Knobles plays their cards right, they can really screw Amazon big time, but I doubt they will. Not a very strategic company at all...
I think OLED is going to make e-ink obsolete. Kindle may be designed to compete with books and e-ink technology, but on a small, efficient, powerful hand-held computer with WiMax, it will not be a difficult task to purchase and display publications and it will be done in color. Hey, you can even have video clips in the publication, like these, uh, web sites do nowadays... The whole idea of e-books to me is sort of like Nike coming out with a line of Shox for the Netherlands wooden clog market. It's a small market, and they're selling something of inferior quality when compared to website content or an actual book. Then again, iTunes has made a fortune selling music of inferior quality to a CD -- but they do it through an intensive marketing campaign, something Amazon's Kindle does not have.
Their designers and business people may intend it to compete in a certain market, but they should be prepared to be dissapointed when another market renders them obsolete. I sincerely doubt users of future palm top computers will balk at downloading books because their device is not a specific e-book device. When I read a .pdf on my laptop, I am not feeling guilty or strange because it is not a proper e-book device.
I am reading text and graphics on my laptop now, and this will surely be done in the future on handheld pc's, and the Kindle will be kindling... The Kindle isn't that much smaller than the Asus EEE PC, and the Kindle is more expensive and does less. The only advantage it has is a distribution network and a decent battery life, but these advantages will be available to other devices soon enough.
April 30, 2008 at 7:11 pm
I am reading text and graphics on my laptop now, and this will surely be done in the future on handheld pc's, and the Kindle will be kindling... The Kindle isn't that much smaller than the Asus EEE PC, and the Kindle is more expensive and does less. The only advantage it has is a distribution network and a decent battery life, but these advantages will be available to other devices soon enough.
You're missing the other big advantage a Kindle/Sony Reader/etc has - the screen. Unfortunately, this is also why it hard to get and expensive. Sure it's only grey scale, but the quality and ease of reading from it has to be seen (in person, not a photo) to be properly understood. I used to read off a PDA, I still use a computer all day, I've tried OLED screens and the Eee, and none of them are close. If you're going to try and get a lot of people to read something other than a paper book, an e-ink screen is the best thing I've seen that might do it.
I own a number of multi-purpose gadgets. But there are still lots of single purpose tools in my house, because they do one thing really well. If you read a little - sure, use your phone, pda, laptop, PSP. If you read a lot, get something that is optimised for reading. I currently carry around both a PDA and a Cybook reader (same screen as a Kindle).
I guess the real question is are there enough people who read enough? The majority of people currently read about a book or two a year, so we can forget them.
April 30, 2008 at 11:43 pm
When it comes to non-technical, personally I by-pass both paper books and eBooks.
For me, Audio Books are the answer. I am a Audible member (which interestingly just just been bought by Amazon, and for $ 22.95 a month I get almost any 2 audio books a month. There are other plans as well.
The best thing for me is that all I need is my iPod or phone - audible is compatible with all iPods, some other MP3 players, and most modern phones.
And it lets me multi-task, I can listen and do something else (like eating airplane food!).
I also use it when commuting, with my iPod connected to my car stereo, it really helps keep road rage at bay, and makes use of the that time - something that an eBook can't (at least legally/safely) do!
It also remembers where you where to you can carry on from that point next time.
if you don't have the time to do it right, when will you have the time to do it over ?
May 1, 2008 at 8:21 am
Kristina Rumpff (4/30/2008)
...My one question.. If you drop a book while reading in the bath, you can eventually dry it out. If you drop an E-Reader?????
Gallon-sized Ziploc bags. 😀 It's what my wife used to use when she wanted to play with her Palm Pilot whilst soaking in the tub.
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[font="Arial"]Knowledge is of two kinds. We know a subject ourselves or we know where we can find information upon it. --Samuel Johnson[/font]
May 1, 2008 at 8:30 am
Matthew Joughin (4/30/2008)
...I also use it when commuting, with my iPod connected to my car stereo, it really helps keep road rage at bay, and makes use of the that time - something that an eBook can't (at least legally/safely) do! It also remembers where you where to you can carry on from that point next time.
All recent Mac computers have a decent text-to-speech program in their standard text editor. My wife downloads fiction from the internet and has her laptop reading to her as she's driving back and forth to the observatory.
It's kind of funny when she's listening to Harry Potter fic and it gets to Dumbledore or McGonnegal. 😛
Myself, I prefer listening to music when I drive. I never thought I'd use that text-to-speech, but I took a history class this semester and had it read to me historic writings that I could download (Plato's Apology, the Roman Twelve Pillars, etc.). It worked quite well. I doubt it'll become a habit for me as it does have some limitations (you can't really pause and resume), but it's adequate for my wife's purposes.
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[font="Arial"]Knowledge is of two kinds. We know a subject ourselves or we know where we can find information upon it. --Samuel Johnson[/font]
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