October 29, 2007 at 1:19 pm
jay holovacs (10/29/2007)
...We are moving more and more toward a concept of thoughtcrime. Trying to identify people who have not commited a crime, but 'might'. There is generally no 'predictor' of 'terrorist' behavior, because 'terrorists' really have very much in common with millions of other people. Since 'terrorists' are so extremely rare in the population virtually all leads are likely to be wrong, but even investigating them can become a deadly invasion of privacy (what ever happend to 'probable cause' ,anyhow?)
...
It's already happening in England: a 17 y/o is on trial for possessing a copy of The Anarchist's Cookbook, a book that is horribly dated and inaccurate, not to mention repudiated by its writer.
Probable cause went out with 9/11 and the P.A.T.R.I.O.T. Act.
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[font="Arial"]Knowledge is of two kinds. We know a subject ourselves or we know where we can find information upon it. --Samuel Johnson[/font]
October 29, 2007 at 1:33 pm
One of the issues regarding data mining to fight terrorism is that DM/DW is best at looking at existing patterns. Most terrorist attacks are one-off events, the exact same attack is unlikely to be repeated in the same fashion. The 9/11 attacks happened because no one considered (outside of fiction authors) the concept of crashing a passenger jet into a sky scraper. They had engineered for accidental strikes, which is largely the same from an engineering standpoint, but not from a terrorist prevention standpoint.
We're always defending against the last attack because we never know where they're going to hit next.
Bruce Schneier (http://www.schneier.com/blog/) has had some interesting things to say about this in the past and I'm sure he'll be talking about it in the future.
And excellent list, Miles. Spot-on.
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[font="Arial"]Knowledge is of two kinds. We know a subject ourselves or we know where we can find information upon it. --Samuel Johnson[/font]
October 29, 2007 at 2:28 pm
Charles Kincaid (10/29/2007)
The more data you have, the better you should be able to predict something.
Why does this sound like Seldon Mathematics to me?
This from advanced SQL Server user is almost funny because prediction modeling uses probability math but it is applied to many business needs. WalMart and Amazon uses it to grow business while big Pharmaceuticals uses it for drug discovery, mortgage companies and banks use it for marketing effectively and other not very valid uses. Big oil uses it to improve oil find and drilling prospects.
Kind regards,
Gift Peddie
October 29, 2007 at 2:57 pm
Gift Peddie (10/29/2007)
This from advanced SQL Server user is almost funny ...
Thanks. It was sort of meant to be funny. I am annoyed by the amount of targeted adverts coming my way. I have been harvested more ways than an old corn field.
The thought of a machine (software) predicting that I'm a terrorist makes me want to laugh and cry at the same time. I research how people break into systems so that I can protect against such things. I work with crowd control and evacuation plans for non-profit organizations. I'm working on several Sci-fi stories. I have a face that is not only likely to stop a clock but set time itself back.
Not to worry. I already have plans in place for when, not if, I get picked up.
ATBCharles Kincaid
October 29, 2007 at 6:07 pm
But..... if we had Psychics coupled to brainwave imaging ... Oh that's been done too !;)
BTW what a boring existance it would be if we could determine from data the outcome of the Melbourne Cup or next weeks lotto numbers. Or even how much that data would cost...
I seem to remember an adage about power corrupting and absolute power doing really bad things. Sorry for being flippant !
CodeOn and have fun trying 😛
October 30, 2007 at 1:14 pm
People are giving the Government too much credit because the US Government hired a brain dead idiot who needed the live data of 26 million veterans to do pedestrian analysis , same idiot actually came back to ask for his job back.
It is very simple the Government will not pay for the brains that will apply clean valid prediction modeling to the data collected. Yes the data will be collected but it will not be modeled to yield any valid profiling information.
:Whistling:
Kind regards,
Gift Peddie
October 30, 2007 at 1:34 pm
Gift Peddie (10/30/2007) People are giving the Government too much credit because the US Government hired a brain dead idiot who needed the live data of 26 million veterans to do pedestrian analysis...
As the recipient of one of the VA letters saying my personal information was now compromised, I would say the Government is using profiling by only hiring idiots at the upper levels and filling the ranks with the leftover applicants.
I know, there are a few good people who work for the government. Apparently, they are just kept out of sight so as to not embarrass anyone.
I believe the better ones work for Homeland Security. One of their brightest gave a news conference just last week...
Sorry for the rant but my trust in the government in protecting us is slipping. Even the Supreme court agreed to hear the Exxon Valdez case yesterday. How many billions has Exxon made since 1989? If they spent so much cleaning it up, why can you still dig up black goo on the beaches today? Oil will likely breech $100/bbl tomorrow when the Fed's tinker with the interest rate.
You will pump that increase into your tank next week and Exxon, BP, Conoco and the others will all thank you.
And we trust our government to handle profiling to protect us?
October 30, 2007 at 1:57 pm
Bob Hoffman (10/30/2007)
And we trust our government to handle profiling to protect us?
Who was is that said the people should not fear their government. it should be the other way around.
We have for far too long let our government control too much. It is hard for the people to get the government to let go of control without looking like revolutionaries. (Though many people say that I'm revolting.)
ATBCharles Kincaid
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