June 19, 2018 at 6:36 am
Ken.L.Wolff - Monday, June 18, 2018 7:21 AMSure seems like lots of doom & gloom. Historically automation has freed up human labor to pursue other interests. 35 years ago, when i started in IT, if someone had told the "financial analysts" how much of their jobs computers would be doing today, I'm pretty sure they'd all think their jobs would be long gone. Last time I checked, the "financial analyst" job market still seems to be fairly robust. Point is, automation does take over some aspects of jobs but frees up time to pursue others.
And that's to say nothing about human intuition. Does the author foresee computers taking that over, as well? Sure, with sufficient programming & analysis, computers may be able to achieve an "error-free track record". But only of past results. Artificial intelligence notwithstanding, I seriously doubt computers will be able to foresee (with any accuracy) the next recession or economic downturn any better than humans.
And "day laborers" and "construction workers"? Really? Someone's going to come up with a machine that's cost-effective to do "day laborer" tasks like clean up a yard, trim trees or even fix plumbing in a narrow, confined space? Maybe someday but is not anything over which I'd lose any sleep if I were a day laborer or construction worker.
To be sure, there's no doubt automation will take over some jobs, but again, historically that's opened others up. Case in point: look at the expansion of the IT industry over the past 30-40 years. We're pursuing things in IT that were only dreamed of 30-40 years ago.
IMO, the author has a valid point but carried the conclusions a bit too far.
Agree with your points. In the early days of our country, over 90% of human labor was used in food production. That left little over for other uses, and raised the effective price of food (ultimately the cost of any product is primarily a factor of the labor involved). The agricultural revolution and the industrial revolution made the population effectively richer as all kinds of products became readily and cheaply available. People that in previous centuries were doing manual labor on the farm are now filling very different niches because farm labor is not needed as much.
We now replace clothing that gets damaged instead of spending hours of labor
repairing them.
Because power equipment does everything from digging foundations and driving nails, the result is that it's easier (and relatively cheaper) to build bigger, better houses and other structures than when all this was done by hand. The great cathedrals and palaces took centuries to build. We now build bigger buildings in a fraction of the time.
On the other hand, true believers seem to think that AI and robots will readily take over any job but as you pointed out, they are really less adaptable. But they can reduce drudgery and injury (Ford is experimenting with a 'exoskeleton' arm assist device which provides the extra lifting capacity for work on the line under the vehicles. This saves a lot of stress on shoulder joints.
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-- FORTRAN manual for Xerox Computers --
June 19, 2018 at 7:36 am
Another industry that can be automated is sex chatting. Apparently the bar is quite low when it comes to stimulating conversation for lonely and unwitting men on the internet. :ermm:
http://fortune.com/2016/07/10/ashley-madison-chatbots/
"Do not seek to follow in the footsteps of the wise. Instead, seek what they sought." - Matsuo Basho
June 19, 2018 at 8:52 am
Jeff Moden - Monday, June 18, 2018 1:54 PMNot the ones that I've come across... especially not those bloody IVRs.
Absolutely. When I need customer service it's because the answer is NOT in a FAQ. It's because I have a problem that must be described and actually comprehended by a knowledgeable person. Using pattern matching to regurgitate canned answers us useless.
...
-- FORTRAN manual for Xerox Computers --
June 19, 2018 at 1:26 pm
jay-h - Tuesday, June 19, 2018 8:52 AMJeff Moden - Monday, June 18, 2018 1:54 PMNot the ones that I've come across... especially not those bloody IVRs.
Absolutely. When I need customer service it's because the answer is NOT in a FAQ. It's because I have a problem that must be described and actually comprehended by a knowledgeable person. Using pattern matching to regurgitate canned answers us useless.
The sad reality is that many human customer service rep can't pass the Turing Test.
"Do not seek to follow in the footsteps of the wise. Instead, seek what they sought." - Matsuo Basho
June 19, 2018 at 2:32 pm
Eric M Russell - Tuesday, June 19, 2018 1:26 PMjay-h - Tuesday, June 19, 2018 8:52 AMJeff Moden - Monday, June 18, 2018 1:54 PMNot the ones that I've come across... especially not those bloody IVRs.
Absolutely. When I need customer service it's because the answer is NOT in a FAQ. It's because I have a problem that must be described and actually comprehended by a knowledgeable person. Using pattern matching to regurgitate canned answers us useless.
The sad reality is that many human customer service rep can't pass the Turing Test.
BWAAAA-HAAAAA!!!!! I've actually used that line on human reps... "Ok... you're in the process of failing the Turing Test. Could I talk with your supervisor, please"?
--Jeff Moden
Change is inevitable... Change for the better is not.
June 19, 2018 at 2:52 pm
This just in ... the bots can "debate" with you now:
https://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/ibm-computer-proves-formidable-against-2-human-debaters-1.3979418
June 19, 2018 at 8:16 pm
KGERBR - Tuesday, June 19, 2018 2:52 PMThis just in ... the bots can "debate" with you now:https://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/ibm-computer-proves-formidable-against-2-human-debaters-1.3979418
I was truly amazed by that article especially when the computer answered with...
"Subsidizing space exploration is like investing in really good tires," argued the computer system, its female voice embodied in a 5-foot-tall machine shaped like a monolith with TV screens on its sides. Such research would enrich the human mind, inspire young people and be a "very sound investment," it said, making it more important even than good roads, schools or health care.
My first impression was "OMG!!!! They've finally done it!!! They've built an incredible, very responsive, fully automated and mostly autonomous, incredible bullshit artist with fully enabled imbecile tendencies". 😉 They should send the damned thing to Mars with the other idiots that want to go there in person and it could become president there!. Either that or have it try to catch up to the dummy in the car that some other dummy launched into space to have a more meaningful conversation. 😀
--Jeff Moden
Change is inevitable... Change for the better is not.
June 20, 2018 at 7:25 am
KGERBR - Tuesday, June 19, 2018 2:52 PMThis just in ... the bots can "debate" with you now:https://www.ctvnews.ca/sci-tech/ibm-computer-proves-formidable-against-2-human-debaters-1.3979418
Hey, bots have been participating in online debate forums for a couple of decades.
"Do not seek to follow in the footsteps of the wise. Instead, seek what they sought." - Matsuo Basho
November 21, 2019 at 5:35 am
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