Is this "global recession" over?

Question

Is this "global recession" over?

Oksana March

SSChasing Mays

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October 24, 2010 at 4:49 am

#63735

Can somebody who knows say for sure if this global recession is over now? I am getting conflicting information.
I am not talking about what it *feels* like, but actually if it's over based on financial data. Are we back to the same point as when it started?
BTW, what is the official date when recession started, what was employment rate on that date vs. what it is now (I believe 9.5% now?)

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Gail Shaw SSC Guru Points: 1004504 More actions · Answer 1

Not over. Not globally anyway.

Gail Shaw
Microsoft Certified Master: SQL Server, MVP, M.Sc (Comp Sci)
SQL In The Wild: Discussions on DB performance with occasional diversions into recoverability

We walk in the dark places no others will enter
We stand on the bridge and no one may pass

Jeff Moden SSC Guru Points: 1004406 More actions · Answer 2

Oksana March (10/24/2010)
Can somebody who knows say for sure if this global recession is over now? I am getting conflicting information.
I am not talking about what it *feels* like, but actually if it's over based on financial data. Are we back to the same point as when it started?
BTW, what is the official date when recession started, what was employment rate on that date vs. what it is now (I believe 9.5% now?)

For those of my friends and family that are working for a half of what they used to make and with no benefits or the several million people who still don't have a job, I'm thinking the answer is a resounding "NO!". And, I believe it's going to start getting worse again... a lot of country's governments bailed out their own banking systems... it's time to start paying for that. Who's going to pay for it? Everyone except the people who started the crisis.

--Jeff Moden

RBAR is pronounced "ree-bar" and is a "Modenism" for Row-By-Agonizing-Row.
First step towards the paradigm shift of writing Set Based code:
________Stop thinking about what you want to do to a ROW... think, instead, of what you want to do to a COLUMN.

Change is inevitable... Change for the better is not.

Helpful Links:
How to post code problems
How to Post Performance Problems
Create a Tally Function (fnTally)

Gail Shaw SSC Guru Points: 1004504 More actions · Answer 3

Jeff Moden (10/24/2010)
a lot of country's governments bailed out their own banking systems...

Not ours. Our banking system was never in trouble, due to some banking laws that have been around for a couple of years and some forex laws left over from pre 1994.

However, as a country that depends on having a market for all our raw materials, we're suffering because other countries have reduced imports. Less money coming in, less money getting spent locally, hiring's down, retrenchments are up, etc, etc.

I don't expect any local recovery to even start until the new year, assuming one is even possible at this point. Industry's now winding down for Christmas and the summer holidays.

Unemployment estimates for June this year were a little over 25%, up almost 1% from end of last year. It's probably higher by now.

Gail Shaw
Microsoft Certified Master: SQL Server, MVP, M.Sc (Comp Sci)
SQL In The Wild: Discussions on DB performance with occasional diversions into recoverability

We walk in the dark places no others will enter
We stand on the bridge and no one may pass

paul.knibbs SSCoach Points: 15320 More actions · Answer 4

I don't think the global economy will *ever* get back to exactly where it was before, which is a good thing--before the crash the whole thing was supporting itself on an unsustainable bubble, which is why it was so bad when everything fell apart. (I mean, I first bought a house in 1993, and at that time I just about managed to wangle a 95% mortgage. I was absolutely stunned when I heard that people were being offered 125% mortgages in the year before the recession!).

Daniel Bowlin SSC-Dedicated Points: 34566 More actions · Answer 5

Globally, I don't think so. There are still many pockets of despair, but there are pockets of hope. Unemployment is improving in some areas here in the US.

ss-457805 SSCertifiable Points: 5872 More actions · Answer 6

UK unemployment has increased to 2.5M

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/8634241.stm

blog: http://sarveshsingh.com Twitter: @sarveshsing

tosscrosby SSCoach Points: 18045 More actions · Answer 7

10.1 percent in the US, not seasonally adjusted....Like that'll make a huge impact!

-- You can't be late until you show up.

Steve Jones - SSC Editor SSC Guru Points: 736478 More actions · Answer 8

I think that we'll get back globally at some point. Maybe not the same point for all countries, but the economies will rebound for most places.

I've seen and heard doom and gloom a few times in my life, and we always recover. I'm sure we will again.

But just like the world in 2006 wasn't anything like the world in 1980, the makeup of our workforce, our business, etc. will change. We'll evolve.

For now, however, I'd say that things are not over and we still have work to do.

Gail Wanabee SSCrazy Eights Points: 8471 More actions · Answer 9

The "Great Recession" is a euphemism.

This is the Second Great Depression and it will eventually, and correctly, be referred to in this manner at some point in the future.

LC

Jeff Moden SSC Guru Points: 1004406 More actions · Answer 10

tosscrosby (10/25/2010)
10.1 percent in the US, not seasonally adjusted....Like that'll make a huge impact!

And that only includes the people who haven't given up and are still being reported on.

--Jeff Moden

RBAR is pronounced "ree-bar" and is a "Modenism" for Row-By-Agonizing-Row.
First step towards the paradigm shift of writing Set Based code:
________Stop thinking about what you want to do to a ROW... think, instead, of what you want to do to a COLUMN.

Change is inevitable... Change for the better is not.

Helpful Links:
How to post code problems
How to Post Performance Problems
Create a Tally Function (fnTally)

Gail Wanabee SSCrazy Eights Points: 8471 More actions · Answer 11

Actual unemployment in the United States is somewhere over 20% and less than 25%. During the Great Depression of the 1930's, unemployment was ~25%.

The United States needs to create approximately 100,000 new jobs per week just to keep up with population growth. This number doesn't include the additional job growth required to replace the ~8,000,000 jobs that have been lost in the last ~2 years.

LC

Ray K SSC-Dedicated Points: 31165 More actions · Answer 12

crainlee2 (10/27/2010)
Actual unemployment in the United States is somewhere over 20% and less than 25%. During the Great Depression of the 1930's, unemployment was ~25%.

Where did you get these numbers? (Not questioning you, I'm just curious.)

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Gail Wanabee SSCrazy Eights Points: 8471 More actions · Answer 13

CNN Business, Bloomberg, my local newspaper, and many other sources.

I read many sources of business and economic information.

LC

http://money.cnn.com/?hpt=Sbin

http://www.bloomberg.com/

GSquared SSC Guru Points: 260824 More actions · Answer 14

The standard definition of "recession" is a period of 2 quarters in a row of negative GDP growth for a region. US GDP is growing (not sure about the rest of the world), so the recession is officially over.

However, if a system loses 30% of its energy, and then regains 1% five times in a row, it still isn't back to the energy it had prior to the loss. That's essentially what we're looking at here.

So, basically, economists operate in a "science" that depends on opinions, has "laws" that violate basic principles of the physical universe, and the recession is "officially over".

- Gus "GSquared", RSVP, OODA, MAP, NMVP, FAQ, SAT, SQL, DNA, RNA, UOI, IOU, AM, PM, AD, BC, BCE, USA, UN, CF, ROFL, LOL, ETC
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