Data Decisions or Instinct?

  • Steve,

    In reading both your post and the reference article, I find them both true and accurate. There are those who will look at data as the hallowed scrolls that should never be questioned. I remember years back someone saying "the, data, the whole data, and nothing but the data!" In addition, I think that was followed by "So Help Me Codd." However, that was long ago and about modeling.

    However, it is not really just the data. Trends within the data, trends in the metadata concerning use and usability tend to help us think more of the process and what we are doing. Further, there is a knowing that something is not right, or trending in a different direction and things could be made better. This is not always a wild dream as some things are, but it often is some specific out of the box thinking that might just revolutionize what we are looking at.

    We have to have the statisticians and gurus to maintain the status quo and advance it as far as it can be. Nevertheless, we must also have those who have the gut feel that it can be made better. Some of the time, you know in your knower that things need to changes, even if the data has not told the story yet. Your knower and experience can forewarn us that change is necessary to better meet the future that is headed your way.

    M.

    Not all gray hairs are Dinosaurs!

  • Miles Neale (7/24/2014)


    Steve,

    In reading both your post and the reference article, I find them both true and accurate.

    Thanks

    We have to have the statisticians and gurus to maintain the status quo and advance it as far as it can be. Nevertheless, we must also have those who have the gut feel that it can be made better.

    Agree. We need some collaboration between multiple disciplines and groups to make better decisions.

  • It should also be remembered that the methodology in gathering and analysing the data is as important as the data itself (Google Flu Trends anybody?).

    ____________
    Just my $0.02 from over here in the cheap seats of the peanut gallery - please adjust for inflation and/or your local currency.

  • RP1966 (7/24/2014)


    In relation to this question I would recommend everyone read at least the first section of 'Thinking, Fast and Slow' by Daniel Kahneman.

    +1

    I see people using data to strengthen the case for something they believe in and not using data to as the source of those beliefs.

  • Miles Neale (7/24/2014)


    Steve,

    In reading both your post and the reference article, I find them both true and accurate. There are those who will look at data as the hallowed scrolls that should never be questioned. I remember years back someone saying "the, data, the whole data, and nothing but the data!" In addition, I think that was followed by "So Help Me Codd." However, that was long ago and about modeling.

    However, it is not really just the data. Trends within the data, trends in the metadata concerning use and usability tend to help us think more of the process and what we are doing. Further, there is a knowing that something is not right, or trending in a different direction and things could be made better. This is not always a wild dream as some things are, but it often is some specific out of the box thinking that might just revolutionize what we are looking at.

    We have to have the statisticians and gurus to maintain the status quo and advance it as far as it can be. Nevertheless, we must also have those who have the gut feel that it can be made better. Some of the time, you know in your knower that things need to changes, even if the data has not told the story yet. Your knower and experience can forewarn us that change is necessary to better meet the future that is headed your way.

    M.

    And that's where the chicken and egg part of this conversation comes in. In many cases the "gut feeling" you're sensing is related to data you've previously digested: your "knower" has detected a much higher level pattern or the fact that the old pattern no longer plays, and the current data you're seeing just hasn't caught up (or isn't designed to pick up on the new pattern).

    My first boss was like this: her "gut" was based on 30 years in the trenches, so it was really grounded in a much larger body of facts than I could easily muster. She couldn't necessarily justify how she got to many of her conclusions, but put to the test, they were dead on most times.

    ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
    Your lack of planning does not constitute an emergency on my part...unless you're my manager...or a director and above...or a really loud-spoken end-user..All right - what was my emergency again?

  • ... Any number of other companies also use data to power their BI systems and dashboards that help their employees make better choices. That seems in contrast to That seems in contrast to this piece from the Harvard Business Reviewthis piece from the Harvard Business Review that says that great decisions don't start with data. It talks about using stories and emotions, with a few key facts sprinkled in, to help sell ideas and get decisions made. On one hand I agree that stories help to sell decisions, but I often have found that successful salespeople use this technique to deceive and convince by plucking emotional heartstrings, and using relatively little data. that says that great decisions don't start with data. It talks about using stories and emotions, with a few key facts sprinkled in, to help sell ideas and get decisions made. On one hand I agree that stories help to sell decisions, but I often have found that successful salespeople use this technique to deceive and convince by plucking emotional heartstrings, and using relatively little data....

    That's why I asserted the other day that, generally speaking, "data science" when used to promote corporate or political interests is not real Science. Their goal isn't the pursuit of truth or educating the public but rather to manipulate consumers or voters into buying a product or point of view even if that means presenting them with false or misleading information. 

    "Do not seek to follow in the footsteps of the wise. Instead, seek what they sought." - Matsuo Basho

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