December 8, 2017 at 8:45 am
skeleton567 - Friday, December 8, 2017 8:28 AMEric M Russell - Friday, December 8, 2017 8:11 AMI believe data can help transform the world for the better, but I also believe that at this point in time the public has access to sufficient data to make better choices. It's not the volume or quality of data that's holding us back, but instead it's limitations in the programming of our thought processes that has to do with logic and critical thinking.
Perhaps this book or something similar should be required reading in school.
https://bookofbadarguments.com/Eric, I just checked out your link above and it appears to be my favorite kind of reading. I'll probably read it this evening. Thanks.
Yes, teaching kids from a young age that "a correlation between two variables or events doesn't imply cause" is just as important that teaching them that 2 + 2 = 4. Think of how different the world would be if most everyone had a grasp of the fundamentals of deductive reasoning. This stuff has been formally classified and written about since ancient Greece, but here we are in 2017 and folks (not just the unwashed masses but educated folks, people in power even) just don't get it.
"Do not seek to follow in the footsteps of the wise. Instead, seek what they sought." - Matsuo Basho
December 8, 2017 at 8:53 am
Eric M Russell - Friday, December 8, 2017 8:45 AMskeleton567 - Friday, December 8, 2017 8:28 AMEric M Russell - Friday, December 8, 2017 8:11 AMI believe data can help transform the world for the better, but I also believe that at this point in time the public has access to sufficient data to make better choices. It's not the volume or quality of data that's holding us back, but instead it's limitations in the programming of our thought processes that has to do with logic and critical thinking.
Perhaps this book or something similar should be required reading in school.
https://bookofbadarguments.com/Eric, I just checked out your link above and it appears to be my favorite kind of reading. I'll probably read it this evening. Thanks.
Yes, teaching kids from a young age that "a correlation between two variables or events doesn't imply cause" is just as important that teaching them that 2 + 2 = 4. Think of how different the world would be if most everyone had a grasp of the fundamentals of deductive reasoning. This stuff has been formally classified and written about since ancient Greece, but here we are in 2017 and folks (not just the unwashed masses but educated folks, people in power even) just don't get it.
Sometimes I think the academics seem even more gullible. Whereas the average person tends to rely on common sense to some degree, some post modernist intellectuals seem to to love counterintuitive conclusions, or positions that depend on vague subtlety (hence Orwell's statement "'There are some ideas so absurd that only an intellectual could believe them." or the Red Queen saying "Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.")
...
-- FORTRAN manual for Xerox Computers --
December 8, 2017 at 9:33 am
Eric M Russell - Friday, December 8, 2017 8:45 AMYes, teaching kids from a young age that "a correlation between two variables or events doesn't imply cause" is just as important that teaching them that 2 + 2 = 4. Think of how different the world would be if most everyone had a grasp of the fundamentals of deductive reasoning. This stuff has been formally classified and written about since ancient Greece, but here we are in 2017 and folks (not just the unwashed masses but educated folks, people in power even) just don't get it.
However, besides the cause and effect relationship which does need to be carefully considered, there is also the whole issue of unintended consequences, sometimes good and sometimes bad. I think the 'correlation' factor is just as important as the cause and effect. When you inflate a tire, the pressure not only effects the distance from the surface, but also the diameter of the tire, the tension on the material, and the heat at which the tire operates. Critical thinking always needs to consider not only direct causal relationships but also the 'what if's' that go along with it. In other words, a single cause may have multiple effects. Sort of the difference between knowledge and wisdom...
Rick
Disaster Recovery = Backup ( Backup ( Your Backup ) )
December 8, 2017 at 10:01 am
jay-h - Friday, December 8, 2017 8:53 AMEric M Russell - Friday, December 8, 2017 8:45 AMskeleton567 - Friday, December 8, 2017 8:28 AMEric M Russell - Friday, December 8, 2017 8:11 AMI believe data can help transform the world for the better, but I also believe that at this point in time the public has access to sufficient data to make better choices. It's not the volume or quality of data that's holding us back, but instead it's limitations in the programming of our thought processes that has to do with logic and critical thinking.
Perhaps this book or something similar should be required reading in school.
https://bookofbadarguments.com/Eric, I just checked out your link above and it appears to be my favorite kind of reading. I'll probably read it this evening. Thanks.
Yes, teaching kids from a young age that "a correlation between two variables or events doesn't imply cause" is just as important that teaching them that 2 + 2 = 4. Think of how different the world would be if most everyone had a grasp of the fundamentals of deductive reasoning. This stuff has been formally classified and written about since ancient Greece, but here we are in 2017 and folks (not just the unwashed masses but educated folks, people in power even) just don't get it.
Sometimes I think the academics seem even more gullible. Whereas the average person tends to rely on common sense to some degree, some post modernist intellectuals seem to to love counterintuitive conclusions, or positions that depend on vague subtlety (hence Orwell's statement "'There are some ideas so absurd that only an intellectual could believe them." or the Red Queen saying "Why, sometimes I've believed as many as six impossible things before breakfast.")
I'm not suggesting we expose kids to the full liberal arts stack; we can leave out the arts, philosophy, social, and political stuff. We just need to teach folks how to be critical thinkers to the point where they are open minded but also rational skeptics; inoculated from the effects of lazy lizard brain thinking, group think, and rhetoric of all forms.
"Do not seek to follow in the footsteps of the wise. Instead, seek what they sought." - Matsuo Basho
December 8, 2017 at 11:38 am
For some fun, here's data to peruse
ourworldindata.org
And for some wacky fun:
http://www.tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations
...
-- FORTRAN manual for Xerox Computers --
December 8, 2017 at 12:12 pm
It's a real discipline to consider both what the data is and isn't showing. Sometimes approaching something from the opposite angle grants a whole new perspective.
I've had a senior manager get very frustrated telling us that our assumptions on the approach we thought he wanted were neither stated, implied. We'd made a rod for our own backs.
I have been in meetings to discuss system changes causing figures to show a drop off in revenue when the comparison was done on a four week financial period vs a five week financial period. The sales team were hell bent on blaming IT that they were still arguing for an IT failure after a data guy pointed out that the four week period plus either the previous or next week showed an increase in revenue. It's funny looking back on it but it was pretty toxic at the time
December 8, 2017 at 8:14 pm
jay-h - Friday, December 8, 2017 11:38 AMFor some fun, here's data to peruseourworldindata.org
And for some wacky fun:
BWAAA-HAAA!!!! The one about "Total Revenue Generated by Arcades correlates with Computer Science Doctorates Awarded in the U.S" actually makes sense especially according to the interviews I've done in the last 10 years! 😛
--Jeff Moden
Change is inevitable... Change for the better is not.
December 9, 2017 at 2:02 am
I am certain that data collected sensibly and interpreted correctly can improve the world. My worry is the current crop of politicians in the western world are more than capable of totally misinterpreting it! 🙁 Sometimes I think my cat has more common sense!:)
December 9, 2017 at 6:21 am
mjh 45389 - Saturday, December 9, 2017 2:02 AMI am certain that data collected sensibly and interpreted correctly can improve the world. My worry is the current crop of politicians in the western world are more than capable of totally misinterpreting it! 🙁 Sometimes I think my cat has more common sense!:)
Oh, they don't misinterpret much. They often understand only what they want to understand or what someone else wants them to understand.
December 9, 2017 at 6:54 am
mjh 45389 - Saturday, December 9, 2017 2:02 AMI am certain that data collected sensibly and interpreted correctly can improve the world. My worry is the current crop of politicians in the western world are more than capable of totally misinterpreting it! 🙁 Sometimes I think my cat has more common sense!:)
At the risk of getting slapped around by Steve again this morning, 🙂 I agree on the misinterpreting. Common sense is only a part of the problem. Agenda often overrules common sense. I usually watch two news sources, Fox and CNN, and it is entertaining to see the same stories 'interpreted' in completely different ways. In addition to the totally different news-writing agendas, they make obviously biased choices in their selection of guest commentators. In deference to Steve, I'll let you draw your own conclusion.
Rick
Disaster Recovery = Backup ( Backup ( Your Backup ) )
December 9, 2017 at 7:39 am
Just received a funny breaking news email that illustrates the data and 'interpretation' problem. I'll parse out the identifying text to avoid controversy.
Correction: This story has been corrected to say the date of theemail was September 14, 2016, not September 4, 2016. The story also changed theheadline and removed a tweet from Donald Trump Jr., who posted a message aboutWikiLeaks on September 4, 2016.
Candidate Donald Trump, his son Donald Trump Jr. and others in the TrumpOrganization received an email in September 2016 offering a decryption key andwebsite address for hacked WikiLeaks documents, according to an email providedto congressional investigators.
The September 14 email was sent during the final stretch of the 2016presidential race.
XXX originally reported the email was released September 4 -- 10 daysearlier -- based on accounts from two sources who had seen the email. The newdetails appear to show that the sender was relying on publicly availableinformation. The new information indicates that the communication is lesssignificant than XXX initially reported.
Rick
Disaster Recovery = Backup ( Backup ( Your Backup ) )
December 9, 2017 at 9:40 pm
skeleton567 - Saturday, December 9, 2017 6:54 AMmjh 45389 - Saturday, December 9, 2017 2:02 AMI am certain that data collected sensibly and interpreted correctly can improve the world. My worry is the current crop of politicians in the western world are more than capable of totally misinterpreting it! 🙁 Sometimes I think my cat has more common sense!:)At the risk of getting slapped around by Steve again this morning, 🙂 I agree on the misinterpreting. Common sense is only a part of the problem. Agenda often overrules common sense. I usually watch two news sources, Fox and CNN, and it is entertaining to see the same stories 'interpreted' in completely different ways. In addition to the totally different news-writing agendas, they make obviously biased choices in their selection of guest commentators. In deference to Steve, I'll let you draw your own conclusion.
My Dad had a great saying about news and things you find on the internet and he also said that books easily fall into the same category. The saying is "Half of all that is written is untrue. The rest is usually written in such a fashion that you can't tell".
--Jeff Moden
Change is inevitable... Change for the better is not.
December 10, 2017 at 2:18 am
Jeff Moden - Saturday, December 9, 2017 9:40 PMMy Dad had a great saying about news and things you find on the internet and he also said that books easily fall into the same category. The saying is "Half of all that is written is untrue. The rest is usually written in such a fashion that you can't tell".
Wise old Dude! By the time a son thinks his father was right he probably has a son who thinks he's wrong
December 10, 2017 at 2:01 pm
David.Poole - Sunday, December 10, 2017 2:18 AMJeff Moden - Saturday, December 9, 2017 9:40 PMMy Dad had a great saying about news and things you find on the internet and he also said that books easily fall into the same category. The saying is "Half of all that is written is untrue. The rest is usually written in such a fashion that you can't tell".
Wise old Dude! By the time a son thinks his father was right he probably has a son who thinks he's wrong
Heh... that's a great saying, as well. I'll have to remember that one.
For me and my Dad, we never had that kind of misunderstanding. We had a great relationship.
--Jeff Moden
Change is inevitable... Change for the better is not.
December 13, 2017 at 2:15 am
skeleton567 - Saturday, December 9, 2017 6:54 AMIn deference to Steve, I'll let you draw your own conclusion.
Thank you
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