April 18, 2016 at 11:25 am
They're not bad here, but they are off by days, and with snow, can be way off on amounts. Even 24 hours out.
Seems like half the time they say snow tomorrow, it starts slow and really comes the next day. They say 12", we get 3", or they say 4", we get 12".
April 18, 2016 at 11:31 am
Steve Jones - SSC Editor (4/18/2016)
They're not bad here, but they are off by days, and with snow, can be way off on amounts. Even 24 hours out.Seems like half the time they say snow tomorrow, it starts slow and really comes the next day. They say 12", we get 3", or they say 4", we get 12".
Same thing here in New England. I'll never forget the storm we had in March 2005 (I think) when they predicted 6-8" and we got over 3 feet.
Jack Corbett
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April 18, 2016 at 12:03 pm
Eirikur Eiriksson (4/18/2016)
jasona.work (4/18/2016)
Steve Jones - SSC Editor (4/18/2016)
No more snow here, at least not forecast. It's cloudy, and foggy. Never know. I think weather forecasters are flipping coins half the time.Couple weeks ago, I read an article, an interview with a meteorologist about forecasting the weather and other odd facts about their jobs. He stated that any prediction more than about 5 days out was pure guesswork. 2-3 days out, they're fairly reliable, 3-5 days it's getting iffy, 5+ days, don't make plans based on the forecast...
My twin brother is a meteorologist and he says the same, up to 72 hours is normally fine and then you can start to reach for a coin to toss. I think when they are doing longer term forecasts they rely on us not remembering what the forecast was when we finally get there:-D
😎
Or people paying attention to the days when they have their vacation scheduled and seeing that it changes 14 times in the week before your vacation actually starts.
April 18, 2016 at 12:18 pm
Ed Wagner (4/18/2016)
Eirikur Eiriksson (4/18/2016)
My twin brother is a meteorologist and he says the same, up to 72 hours is normally fine and then you can start to reach for a coin to toss. I think when they are doing longer term forecasts they rely on us not remembering what the forecast was when we finally get there:-D😎
Or people paying attention to the days when they have their vacation scheduled and seeing that it changes 14 times in the week before your vacation actually starts.
Very true. Looked at weather forecasts for a week leading up to a family trip to Florida in an attempt to schedule outdoor activities on good weather days and indoor activities on foul weather days. Didn't quite work out as planned but still was a great family vacation.
April 18, 2016 at 12:26 pm
Eirikur Eiriksson (4/18/2016)
jasona.work (4/18/2016)
Steve Jones - SSC Editor (4/18/2016)
No more snow here, at least not forecast. It's cloudy, and foggy. Never know. I think weather forecasters are flipping coins half the time.Couple weeks ago, I read an article, an interview with a meteorologist about forecasting the weather and other odd facts about their jobs. He stated that any prediction more than about 5 days out was pure guesswork. 2-3 days out, they're fairly reliable, 3-5 days it's getting iffy, 5+ days, don't make plans based on the forecast...
My twin brother is a meteorologist and he says the same, up to 72 hours is normally fine and then you can start to reach for a coin to toss. I think when they are doing longer term forecasts they rely on us not remembering what the forecast was when we finally get there:-D
😎
I've heard similar along the lines of short-term and long-term forecasting being reasonably accurate but medium-term being the trick. The thinking was short-term can be seen coming and long-term can be extrapolated from the short-term but medium-term has all kinds of variables to consider. They also said it's something like 0.1°C difference between it snowing and not which makes it very difficult to be precise about where and when it will fall, particularly on this side of the pond. There's also vicious rumours that the Met Office don't give a rat's behind about the North-West of England so they don't devote the same resources that they might to other parts of the country.
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April 18, 2016 at 12:36 pm
Grumpy DBA (4/18/2016)
Ed Wagner (4/18/2016)
Eirikur Eiriksson (4/18/2016)
My twin brother is a meteorologist and he says the same, up to 72 hours is normally fine and then you can start to reach for a coin to toss. I think when they are doing longer term forecasts they rely on us not remembering what the forecast was when we finally get there:-D😎
Or people paying attention to the days when they have their vacation scheduled and seeing that it changes 14 times in the week before your vacation actually starts.
Very true. Looked at weather forecasts for a week leading up to a family trip to Florida in an attempt to schedule outdoor activities on good weather days and indoor activities on foul weather days. Didn't quite work out as planned but still was a great family vacation.
I did the exact same thing in February and had the exact same experience with the forecasts - inaccurate. Fortunately, we also had the same result - awesome vacation.
April 18, 2016 at 12:39 pm
Grumpy DBA (4/18/2016)
Ed Wagner (4/18/2016)
Eirikur Eiriksson (4/18/2016)
My twin brother is a meteorologist and he says the same, up to 72 hours is normally fine and then you can start to reach for a coin to toss. I think when they are doing longer term forecasts they rely on us not remembering what the forecast was when we finally get there:-D😎
Or people paying attention to the days when they have their vacation scheduled and seeing that it changes 14 times in the week before your vacation actually starts.
Very true. Looked at weather forecasts for a week leading up to a family trip to Florida in an attempt to schedule outdoor activities on good weather days and indoor activities on foul weather days. Didn't quite work out as planned but still was a great family vacation.
To give those guys some credit, they never say this is how the weather is going to be but rather this is our best guess;-)
😎
Sounds familiar if one thinks of project planning!
April 18, 2016 at 1:23 pm
Maybe accuracy in CPU math is overrated?
April 19, 2016 at 3:46 am
Steve Jones - SSC Editor (4/18/2016)
Maybe accuracy in CPU math is overrated?
I don't know...I guess I take it for granted that I'm going to get the right mathematical result when doing a calculation. I hope it doesn't get into the mainstream.
My favorite quote from the article was that CPUs that don't get math right is good for "data that is noisy by nature". I wonder if that means users who are noisy be nature are often wrong too. 😛
April 19, 2016 at 3:53 am
And more homework in the forums. Is it wrong to want to post a sensible-looking but completely incorrect query as answers?
Gail Shaw
Microsoft Certified Master: SQL Server, MVP, M.Sc (Comp Sci)
SQL In The Wild: Discussions on DB performance with occasional diversions into recoverability
April 19, 2016 at 4:34 am
GilaMonster (4/19/2016)
And more homework in the forums. Is it wrong to want to post a sensible-looking but completely incorrect query as answers?
No.
If people are going to cheat, let them figure out the consequences of their cheating the hard way. Also, the smart people who are close to the answer but are missing that one thing will figure out that the answer is wrong and will figure out why.
I ran into this when I was doing my first certification. A friend and I co-purchased what we thought was a real test trainer that turned out to be a braindump (didn't know that until later). But then I realized too many of the answers were wrong based on the question being asked. So I dumped the dump (so to speak) and found a Microsoft allowed test trainer. I was feeling fairly confident when I realized I could recognize a bad answer without having to research it.
April 19, 2016 at 4:52 am
GilaMonster (4/19/2016)
And more homework in the forums. Is it wrong to want to post a sensible-looking but completely incorrect query as answers?
If you do, I'm going to have to mark down your grade.
Oh wait. You're not getting a grade are you. Heck, you can do anything you want then.
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April 19, 2016 at 4:59 am
Steve Jones - SSC Editor (4/18/2016)
Maybe accuracy in CPU math is overrated?
I guess it depends on what you're doing. I wouldn't want to be using that chip to calculate tolerances for the International Space Station for instance. But extrapolating weather forecasts might be okay on it.
April 19, 2016 at 5:02 am
Brandie Tarvin (4/19/2016)
Steve Jones - SSC Editor (4/18/2016)
Maybe accuracy in CPU math is overrated?I guess it depends on what you're doing. I wouldn't want to be using that chip to calculate tolerances for the International Space Station for instance. But extrapolating weather forecasts might be okay on it.
Hey, there's an idea. Then they could blame the computer for inaccurate data generating inaccurate forecasts. 😛
April 19, 2016 at 5:25 am
Brandie Tarvin (4/19/2016)
GilaMonster (4/19/2016)
And more homework in the forums. Is it wrong to want to post a sensible-looking but completely incorrect query as answers?No.
If people are going to cheat, let them figure out the consequences of their cheating the hard way. Also, the smart people who are close to the answer but are missing that one thing will figure out that the answer is wrong and will figure out why.
I ran into this when I was doing my first certification. A friend and I co-purchased what we thought was a real test trainer that turned out to be a braindump (didn't know that until later). But then I realized too many of the answers were wrong based on the question being asked. So I dumped the dump (so to speak) and found a Microsoft allowed test trainer. I was feeling fairly confident when I realized I could recognize a bad answer without having to research it.
That poster didn't even try to cover it up or deny it. At least he isn't telling lies while cheating. Maybe if he spent more time following Gail's advice (like say, creating a table) and less time posting, he might make some progress.
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