December 13, 2013 at 10:02 am
Steve Jones - SSC Editor (12/13/2013)
Warming up here. Gonna be 32 today
we crossed back over to positive digits a couple of days ago and it feels balmy warm here
Jason...AKA CirqueDeSQLeil
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December 13, 2013 at 10:33 am
SQLRNNR (12/13/2013)
Steve Jones - SSC Editor (12/13/2013)
Warming up here. Gonna be 32 todaywe crossed back over to positive digits a couple of days ago and it feels balmy warm here
Weather widget on my phone says 25 here...
Felt like it when I walked across the campus to help someone out in another building...
December 13, 2013 at 11:21 am
jasona.work (12/13/2013)
SQLRNNR (12/13/2013)
Steve Jones - SSC Editor (12/13/2013)
Warming up here. Gonna be 32 todaywe crossed back over to positive digits a couple of days ago and it feels balmy warm here
Weather widget on my phone says 25 here...
Felt like it when I walked across the campus to help someone out in another building...
It's 42 in Redmond.
December 13, 2013 at 11:35 am
Revenant (12/13/2013)
jasona.work (12/13/2013)
SQLRNNR (12/13/2013)
Steve Jones - SSC Editor (12/13/2013)
Warming up here. Gonna be 32 todaywe crossed back over to positive digits a couple of days ago and it feels balmy warm here
Weather widget on my phone says 25 here...
Felt like it when I walked across the campus to help someone out in another building...
It's 42 in Redmond.
28 (F) in northwest Ohio - but we are bracing for a Winter Weather Advisory starting tonight running through tomorrow evening - although in recent history, these kinds of predictions have a tendency to err on the side of overly cautious and extra dramatic. We'll probably get 2 inches of snow and the grocery stores will be out of bread and milk 😀
December 13, 2013 at 11:47 am
batgirl (12/13/2013)
Revenant (12/13/2013)
jasona.work (12/13/2013)
SQLRNNR (12/13/2013)
Steve Jones - SSC Editor (12/13/2013)
Warming up here. Gonna be 32 todaywe crossed back over to positive digits a couple of days ago and it feels balmy warm here
Weather widget on my phone says 25 here...
Felt like it when I walked across the campus to help someone out in another building...
It's 42 in Redmond.
28 (F) in northwest Ohio - but we are bracing for a Winter Weather Advisory starting tonight running through tomorrow evening - although in recent history, these kinds of predictions have a tendency to err on the side of overly cautious and extra dramatic. We'll probably get 2 inches of snow and the grocery stores will be out of bread and milk 😀
We have the same phenomenon here. If even a smaller winter storm is forecast, the grocery stores sell out of the staples very quickly. Then the news blurbs run for a couple days about "battening down the hatches" and "preparedness in action" and all the other dramatic flair. Then we get some minimal snow and the local news people make excuses and blame NOAA, El Ninio, La Ninia or an upper air disturbance. The part I really find interesting how people feel the need to "stock up" if they think they're not going to be able to get groceries. I've heard it referred to as the "economy of scarcity".
Of course, now that we say we're only going to get 2 inches, we'll probably get 2 feet and the schools will be closed all of next week. :w00t:
December 13, 2013 at 12:02 pm
Ed Wagner (12/13/2013)
batgirl (12/13/2013)
Revenant (12/13/2013)
jasona.work (12/13/2013)
SQLRNNR (12/13/2013)
Steve Jones - SSC Editor (12/13/2013)
Warming up here. Gonna be 32 todaywe crossed back over to positive digits a couple of days ago and it feels balmy warm here
Weather widget on my phone says 25 here...
Felt like it when I walked across the campus to help someone out in another building...
It's 42 in Redmond.
28 (F) in northwest Ohio - but we are bracing for a Winter Weather Advisory starting tonight running through tomorrow evening - although in recent history, these kinds of predictions have a tendency to err on the side of overly cautious and extra dramatic. We'll probably get 2 inches of snow and the grocery stores will be out of bread and milk 😀
We have the same phenomenon here. If even a smaller winter storm is forecast, the grocery stores sell out of the staples very quickly. Then the news blurbs run for a couple days about "battening down the hatches" and "preparedness in action" and all the other dramatic flair. Then we get some minimal snow and the local news people make excuses and blame NOAA, El Ninio, La Ninia or an upper air disturbance. The part I really find interesting how people feel the need to "stock up" if they think they're not going to be able to get groceries. I've heard it referred to as the "economy of scarcity".
Of course, now that we say we're only going to get 2 inches, we'll probably get 2 feet and the schools will be closed all of next week. :w00t:
Perceived scarcity promotes hoarding.
Here, a forecast for a quarter-inch of "wintry mix" is trumpeted as a snowpocalyps in the making by the local TV stations and usually causes pre-apocalyptic rush on milk and bread. The odd part is that those people frantically stocking up on staples like they might be snowed in for a month seem to be the same ones who will still be tearing around town at 55-60 mph when things start to get dicey on the roads. People take extensive precautions against events that are highly unlikely to happen around here (being stranded at home for more than 24 hours) while ignoring basic precautions against events that are quite likely to happen (plowing into the car in front of you because you can't slow from 60 to 0 in 300 feet on slick roads).
The most recent prediction of an ice storm (possibly a half-inch of ice accumulation on trees and power lines) even caused a local shortage of generators. To be fair, though, many people who remember the 1994 ice storm here (power out in some places for two weeks) still probably experience disproportionate post-traumatic responses to predictions of ice storms.
Jason Wolfkill
December 13, 2013 at 12:09 pm
wolfkillj (12/13/2013)
Ed Wagner (12/13/2013)
batgirl (12/13/2013)
Revenant (12/13/2013)
jasona.work (12/13/2013)
SQLRNNR (12/13/2013)
Steve Jones - SSC Editor (12/13/2013)
Warming up here. Gonna be 32 todaywe crossed back over to positive digits a couple of days ago and it feels balmy warm here
Weather widget on my phone says 25 here...
Felt like it when I walked across the campus to help someone out in another building...
It's 42 in Redmond.
28 (F) in northwest Ohio - but we are bracing for a Winter Weather Advisory starting tonight running through tomorrow evening - although in recent history, these kinds of predictions have a tendency to err on the side of overly cautious and extra dramatic. We'll probably get 2 inches of snow and the grocery stores will be out of bread and milk 😀
We have the same phenomenon here. If even a smaller winter storm is forecast, the grocery stores sell out of the staples very quickly. Then the news blurbs run for a couple days about "battening down the hatches" and "preparedness in action" and all the other dramatic flair. Then we get some minimal snow and the local news people make excuses and blame NOAA, El Ninio, La Ninia or an upper air disturbance. The part I really find interesting how people feel the need to "stock up" if they think they're not going to be able to get groceries. I've heard it referred to as the "economy of scarcity".
Of course, now that we say we're only going to get 2 inches, we'll probably get 2 feet and the schools will be closed all of next week. :w00t:
Perceived scarcity promotes hoarding.
Here, a forecast for a quarter-inch of "wintry mix" is trumpeted as a snowpocalyps in the making by the local TV stations and usually causes pre-apocalyptic rush on milk and bread. The odd part is that those people frantically stocking up on staples like they might be snowed in for a month seem to be the same ones who will still be tearing around town at 55-60 mph when things start to get dicey on the roads. People take extensive precautions against events that are highly unlikely to happen around here (being stranded at home for more than 24 hours) while ignoring basic precautions against events that are quite likely to happen (plowing into the car in front of you because you can't slow from 60 to 0 in 300 feet on slick roads).
The most recent prediction of an ice storm (possibly a half-inch of ice accumulation on trees and power lines) even caused a local shortage of generators. To be fair, though, many people who remember the 1994 ice storm here (power out in some places for two weeks) still probably experience disproportionate post-traumatic responses to predictions of ice storms.
Exactly right Jason - in my case, people in my age group are still remembering and over-reacting to the "Blizzard of '78" which was not predicted...some nasty major snow cloud just decided to stall out and linger dropping a couple of feet of snow overnight and stranded people for a week.
I continue to wish that my job would allow for the accuracy rate that the local weather guesser's enjoy.
December 13, 2013 at 12:41 pm
batgirl (12/13/2013)
wolfkillj (12/13/2013)
Ed Wagner (12/13/2013)
batgirl (12/13/2013)
Revenant (12/13/2013)
jasona.work (12/13/2013)
SQLRNNR (12/13/2013)
Steve Jones - SSC Editor (12/13/2013)
Warming up here. Gonna be 32 todaywe crossed back over to positive digits a couple of days ago and it feels balmy warm here
Weather widget on my phone says 25 here...
Felt like it when I walked across the campus to help someone out in another building...
It's 42 in Redmond.
28 (F) in northwest Ohio - but we are bracing for a Winter Weather Advisory starting tonight running through tomorrow evening - although in recent history, these kinds of predictions have a tendency to err on the side of overly cautious and extra dramatic. We'll probably get 2 inches of snow and the grocery stores will be out of bread and milk 😀
We have the same phenomenon here. If even a smaller winter storm is forecast, the grocery stores sell out of the staples very quickly. Then the news blurbs run for a couple days about "battening down the hatches" and "preparedness in action" and all the other dramatic flair. Then we get some minimal snow and the local news people make excuses and blame NOAA, El Ninio, La Ninia or an upper air disturbance. The part I really find interesting how people feel the need to "stock up" if they think they're not going to be able to get groceries. I've heard it referred to as the "economy of scarcity".
Of course, now that we say we're only going to get 2 inches, we'll probably get 2 feet and the schools will be closed all of next week. :w00t:
Perceived scarcity promotes hoarding.
Here, a forecast for a quarter-inch of "wintry mix" is trumpeted as a snowpocalyps in the making by the local TV stations and usually causes pre-apocalyptic rush on milk and bread. The odd part is that those people frantically stocking up on staples like they might be snowed in for a month seem to be the same ones who will still be tearing around town at 55-60 mph when things start to get dicey on the roads. People take extensive precautions against events that are highly unlikely to happen around here (being stranded at home for more than 24 hours) while ignoring basic precautions against events that are quite likely to happen (plowing into the car in front of you because you can't slow from 60 to 0 in 300 feet on slick roads).
The most recent prediction of an ice storm (possibly a half-inch of ice accumulation on trees and power lines) even caused a local shortage of generators. To be fair, though, many people who remember the 1994 ice storm here (power out in some places for two weeks) still probably experience disproportionate post-traumatic responses to predictions of ice storms.
Exactly right Jason - in my case, people in my age group are still remembering and over-reacting to the "Blizzard of '78" which was not predicted...some nasty major snow cloud just decided to stall out and linger dropping a couple of feet of snow overnight and stranded people for a week.
I continue to wish that my job would allow for the accuracy rate that the local weather guesser's enjoy.
Forecasters sacrifice accuracy for safety: they, at least in North America, consistently forecast worse weather than they actually expect. It is safe to be wrong on that side. Nate Silver has an entire chapter on that in his The Signal and the Noise.
December 13, 2013 at 1:10 pm
Revenant (12/13/2013)
batgirl (12/13/2013)
wolfkillj (12/13/2013)
Ed Wagner (12/13/2013)
batgirl (12/13/2013)
Revenant (12/13/2013)
jasona.work (12/13/2013)
SQLRNNR (12/13/2013)
Steve Jones - SSC Editor (12/13/2013)
Warming up here. Gonna be 32 todaywe crossed back over to positive digits a couple of days ago and it feels balmy warm here
Weather widget on my phone says 25 here...
Felt like it when I walked across the campus to help someone out in another building...
It's 42 in Redmond.
28 (F) in northwest Ohio - but we are bracing for a Winter Weather Advisory starting tonight running through tomorrow evening - although in recent history, these kinds of predictions have a tendency to err on the side of overly cautious and extra dramatic. We'll probably get 2 inches of snow and the grocery stores will be out of bread and milk 😀
We have the same phenomenon here. If even a smaller winter storm is forecast, the grocery stores sell out of the staples very quickly. Then the news blurbs run for a couple days about "battening down the hatches" and "preparedness in action" and all the other dramatic flair. Then we get some minimal snow and the local news people make excuses and blame NOAA, El Ninio, La Ninia or an upper air disturbance. The part I really find interesting how people feel the need to "stock up" if they think they're not going to be able to get groceries. I've heard it referred to as the "economy of scarcity".
Of course, now that we say we're only going to get 2 inches, we'll probably get 2 feet and the schools will be closed all of next week. :w00t:
Perceived scarcity promotes hoarding.
Here, a forecast for a quarter-inch of "wintry mix" is trumpeted as a snowpocalyps in the making by the local TV stations and usually causes pre-apocalyptic rush on milk and bread. The odd part is that those people frantically stocking up on staples like they might be snowed in for a month seem to be the same ones who will still be tearing around town at 55-60 mph when things start to get dicey on the roads. People take extensive precautions against events that are highly unlikely to happen around here (being stranded at home for more than 24 hours) while ignoring basic precautions against events that are quite likely to happen (plowing into the car in front of you because you can't slow from 60 to 0 in 300 feet on slick roads).
The most recent prediction of an ice storm (possibly a half-inch of ice accumulation on trees and power lines) even caused a local shortage of generators. To be fair, though, many people who remember the 1994 ice storm here (power out in some places for two weeks) still probably experience disproportionate post-traumatic responses to predictions of ice storms.
Exactly right Jason - in my case, people in my age group are still remembering and over-reacting to the "Blizzard of '78" which was not predicted...some nasty major snow cloud just decided to stall out and linger dropping a couple of feet of snow overnight and stranded people for a week.
I continue to wish that my job would allow for the accuracy rate that the local weather guesser's enjoy.
Forecasters sacrifice accuracy for safety: they, at least in North America, consistently forecast worse weather than they actually expect. It is safe to be wrong on that side. Nate Silver has an entire chapter on that in his The Signal and the Noise.
I haven't read Nate Silver's book yet (it's on the list), so I don't know whether he addresses consumer response to forecasts, but there's a difference between issuing a conservative forecast and sensationalizing a conservative forecast that still predicts relatively minor outcomes.
Television stations around here "cover" forecasts of relatively minor "winter weather events" (flurries, 1/10 inch of freezing rain, etc.) as if the world might end - roving reporters at major intersections (usually reporting "Things look OK here for now [unspoken sentiment: 'but I sure hope somebody spins out soon so my cameraman can get a shot of a car sliding into a pole or something so I'm not standing out here wet and freezing for nothing']. Back to you, Steve"), non-stop check-ins with the Action Eyewitness Hometown On Your Side weather team, "man on the street" interviews with people filling their cars with gas because "who knows when we might be able to get gas again?", etc.
This leads to skepticism/cynicism among viewers, as evidenced by the parade of Facebook posts and tweets mocking the over-the-top nature of this coverage. When coverage of fairly minor events with little chance of causing significant problems is already turned up to 11, there's no way to emphasize forecasts of serious events that could cause major problems. The hype makes them all look the same to viewers, so some people may ignore warnings that should be taken seriously. It's a classic case of "crying wolf", and it's not only irritating but also irresponsible, IMHO.
Jason Wolfkill
December 13, 2013 at 1:48 pm
wolfkillj (12/13/2013)
Revenant (12/13/2013)
batgirl (12/13/2013)
wolfkillj (12/13/2013)
Ed Wagner (12/13/2013)
batgirl (12/13/2013)
Revenant (12/13/2013)
jasona.work (12/13/2013)
SQLRNNR (12/13/2013)
Steve Jones - SSC Editor (12/13/2013)
Warming up here. Gonna be 32 todaywe crossed back over to positive digits a couple of days ago and it feels balmy warm here
Weather widget on my phone says 25 here...
Felt like it when I walked across the campus to help someone out in another building...
It's 42 in Redmond.
28 (F) in northwest Ohio - but we are bracing for a Winter Weather Advisory starting tonight running through tomorrow evening - although in recent history, these kinds of predictions have a tendency to err on the side of overly cautious and extra dramatic. We'll probably get 2 inches of snow and the grocery stores will be out of bread and milk 😀
We have the same phenomenon here. If even a smaller winter storm is forecast, the grocery stores sell out of the staples very quickly. Then the news blurbs run for a couple days about "battening down the hatches" and "preparedness in action" and all the other dramatic flair. Then we get some minimal snow and the local news people make excuses and blame NOAA, El Ninio, La Ninia or an upper air disturbance. The part I really find interesting how people feel the need to "stock up" if they think they're not going to be able to get groceries. I've heard it referred to as the "economy of scarcity".
Of course, now that we say we're only going to get 2 inches, we'll probably get 2 feet and the schools will be closed all of next week. :w00t:
Perceived scarcity promotes hoarding.
Here, a forecast for a quarter-inch of "wintry mix" is trumpeted as a snowpocalyps in the making by the local TV stations and usually causes pre-apocalyptic rush on milk and bread. The odd part is that those people frantically stocking up on staples like they might be snowed in for a month seem to be the same ones who will still be tearing around town at 55-60 mph when things start to get dicey on the roads. People take extensive precautions against events that are highly unlikely to happen around here (being stranded at home for more than 24 hours) while ignoring basic precautions against events that are quite likely to happen (plowing into the car in front of you because you can't slow from 60 to 0 in 300 feet on slick roads).
The most recent prediction of an ice storm (possibly a half-inch of ice accumulation on trees and power lines) even caused a local shortage of generators. To be fair, though, many people who remember the 1994 ice storm here (power out in some places for two weeks) still probably experience disproportionate post-traumatic responses to predictions of ice storms.
Exactly right Jason - in my case, people in my age group are still remembering and over-reacting to the "Blizzard of '78" which was not predicted...some nasty major snow cloud just decided to stall out and linger dropping a couple of feet of snow overnight and stranded people for a week.
I continue to wish that my job would allow for the accuracy rate that the local weather guesser's enjoy.
Forecasters sacrifice accuracy for safety: they, at least in North America, consistently forecast worse weather than they actually expect. It is safe to be wrong on that side. Nate Silver has an entire chapter on that in his The Signal and the Noise.
I haven't read Nate Silver's book yet (it's on the list), so I don't know whether he addresses consumer response to forecasts, but there's a difference between issuing a conservative forecast and sensationalizing a conservative forecast that still predicts relatively minor outcomes.
Television stations around here "cover" forecasts of relatively minor "winter weather events" (flurries, 1/10 inch of freezing rain, etc.) as if the world might end - roving reporters at major intersections (usually reporting "Things look OK here for now [unspoken sentiment: 'but I sure hope somebody spins out soon so my cameraman can get a shot of a car sliding into a pole or something so I'm not standing out here wet and freezing for nothing']. Back to you, Steve"), non-stop check-ins with the Action Eyewitness Hometown On Your Side weather team, "man on the street" interviews with people filling their cars with gas because "who knows when we might be able to get gas again?", etc.
This leads to skepticism/cynicism among viewers, as evidenced by the parade of Facebook posts and tweets mocking the over-the-top nature of this coverage. When coverage of fairly minor events with little chance of causing significant problems is already turned up to 11, there's no way to emphasize forecasts of serious events that could cause major problems. The hype makes them all look the same to viewers, so some people may ignore warnings that should be taken seriously. It's a classic case of "crying wolf", and it's not only irritating but also irresponsible, IMHO.
Silver addresses consumer response but he dwells on the response to the bias, not to the showmanship of the presenters.
December 13, 2013 at 2:51 pm
Ed Wagner (12/13/2013)
batgirl (12/13/2013)
Revenant (12/13/2013)
jasona.work (12/13/2013)
SQLRNNR (12/13/2013)
Steve Jones - SSC Editor (12/13/2013)
Warming up here. Gonna be 32 todaywe crossed back over to positive digits a couple of days ago and it feels balmy warm here
Weather widget on my phone says 25 here...
Felt like it when I walked across the campus to help someone out in another building...
It's 42 in Redmond.
28 (F) in northwest Ohio - but we are bracing for a Winter Weather Advisory starting tonight running through tomorrow evening - although in recent history, these kinds of predictions have a tendency to err on the side of overly cautious and extra dramatic. We'll probably get 2 inches of snow and the grocery stores will be out of bread and milk 😀
We have the same phenomenon here. If even a smaller winter storm is forecast, the grocery stores sell out of the staples very quickly. Then the news blurbs run for a couple days about "battening down the hatches" and "preparedness in action" and all the other dramatic flair. Then we get some minimal snow and the local news people make excuses and blame NOAA, El Ninio, La Ninia or an upper air disturbance. The part I really find interesting how people feel the need to "stock up" if they think they're not going to be able to get groceries. I've heard it referred to as the "economy of scarcity".
Of course, now that we say we're only going to get 2 inches, we'll probably get 2 feet and the schools will be closed all of next week. :w00t:
Here in Boston we call that the French Toast Alert
http://www.universalhub.com/french-toast
People run out to get milk, bread and eggs. Must be because snow makes them crave French Toast!
--------------------------------------
When you encounter a problem, if the solution isn't readily evident go back to the start and check your assumptions.
--------------------------------------
It’s unpleasantly like being drunk.
What’s so unpleasant about being drunk?
You ask a glass of water. -- Douglas Adams
December 13, 2013 at 4:56 pm
Well, it got up to 50F here today. I got to walk around in shorts and a t-shirt after my swim (inside).
December 13, 2013 at 5:00 pm
:sick:
Steve Jones - SSC Editor (12/13/2013)
Well, it got up to 50F here today. I got to walk around in shorts and a t-shirt after my swim (inside).
:sick: (green with envy)
December 13, 2013 at 7:08 pm
Steve Jones - SSC Editor (12/13/2013)
Warming up here. Gonna be 32 today
First reaction was "lucky you", we only hit 28 today. Then it clicked - with the different scales that makes you 28 degrees (our measure) or 50 degrees (your measure) colder than here.
Tom
December 14, 2013 at 12:08 am
L' Eomot Inversé (12/13/2013)
Steve Jones - SSC Editor (12/13/2013)
Warming up here. Gonna be 32 todayFirst reaction was "lucky you", we only hit 28 today. Then it clicked - with the different scales that makes you 28 degrees (our measure) or 50 degrees (your measure) colder than here.
IMO temperature is not everything -- although in Redmond, as I noted, we have above-freezing temperatures, it has been drizzling for the last two days, that interrupted several times a day by cold rain.
I am still thankful that I do not have to shovel it.
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