January 18, 2011 at 12:52 pm
Craig Farrell (1/18/2011)
jcrawf02 (1/18/2011)
Not sure I'm following the paradox of the free range chicken. Are you saying it's a paradox because they no longer roam the great plains in vast flocks, covering the iconic grasses with their flapping feathery bodies to the point where you can't see the landscape?LOL, yeah, that too. 🙂
Make up your mind! Is it a pair o' ducks or chickens? 😛
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January 18, 2011 at 1:05 pm
Alvin Ramard (1/18/2011)
Craig Farrell (1/18/2011)
jcrawf02 (1/18/2011)
Not sure I'm following the paradox of the free range chicken. Are you saying it's a paradox because they no longer roam the great plains in vast flocks, covering the iconic grasses with their flapping feathery bodies to the point where you can't see the landscape?LOL, yeah, that too. 🙂
Make up your mind! Is it a pair o' ducks or chickens? 😛
Why pick? Both are tasty!
Never stop learning, even if it hurts. Ego bruises are practically mandatory as you learn unless you've never risked enough to make a mistake.
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January 18, 2011 at 1:10 pm
Stefan Krzywicki (1/18/2011)
Chad Crawford (1/18/2011)
jcrawf02 (1/18/2011)
Not sure I'm following the paradox of the free range chicken. Are you saying it's a paradox because they no longer roam the great plains in vast flocks, covering the iconic grasses with their flapping feathery bodies to the point where you can't see the landscape?Open and grab a fruit from the apple/orange box.
Whatever your pull from this box (apple or orange) is the only fruit in the box otherwise it would have been labeled correctly.
If you get an apple, then the box label apple is the orange box and the box labeled orange is the mix. (the box labeled apple cannot be the mix otherwise the box labeled orange would have been labeled correctly.
Likewise, if you get an orange, then the box label orange is the apple box and the box labeled apple is the mix.
Since my degree in Stats was hammered earlier today, here's a classic:
You are on a game show. There are three doors, behind one of them is a car, behind the other two are goats. You get to pick one of the three doors. After you pick a door, the game show host opens one of the unpicked doors to show you a goat an allows you to switch doors if desired. Should you switch or stick with your original guess? For bonus points, what is the probability of getting the car based on your decision to switch or stay?
Chad
I remember reading this at some point, but can't remember the solution. I believe the best probability is to switch doors, but don't remember why.
That is correct.
The easiest way I've found to explain it is to figure out how you can lose. There are three choices, right?
If you've picked the door with goat #1, the host must show you goat #2, so if you switch you win.
If you've picked the door with goat #2, the host must show you goat #1, so if you switch you win.
If you've picked the door with the car, the host can show you either goat and if you switch you lose.
So... by switching, the probability of winning is 2 in 3, 66%.
If you don't switch and keep your original guess, the probability that you guessed right hasn't changed so you have a 1/3 chance (33%) of getting the car.
Most people think that switching gives you a 50/50 chance, but that is not the case. Class dismissed. :-D:-D:-D:-D:-D:-D:-D
Monty Hall (this riddle) described on Wikipedia
Chad
January 18, 2011 at 1:55 pm
Chad Crawford (1/18/2011)
That is correct.The easiest way I've found to explain it is to figure out how you can lose. There are three choices, right?
If you've picked the door with goat #1, the host must show you goat #2, so if you switch you win.
If you've picked the door with goat #2, the host must show you goat #1, so if you switch you win.
If you've picked the door with the car, the host can show you either goat and if you switch you lose.
So... by switching, the probability of winning is 2 in 3, 66%.
If you don't switch and keep your original guess, the probability that you guessed right hasn't changed so you have a 1/3 chance (33%) of getting the car.
Most people think that switching gives you a 50/50 chance, but that is not the case. Class dismissed. :-D:-D:-D:-D:-D:-D:-D
Monty Hall (this riddle) described on Wikipedia
Chad
Sorry cousin, but this is why statisticians are dorks. If you already found the car, and you switch for the goat just to prove a statistical point, then you get what you deserve. 50/50 ;-):-D
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"stewsterl 80804 (10/16/2009)I guess when you stop and try to understand the solution provided you not only learn, but save yourself some headaches when you need to make any slight changes."
January 18, 2011 at 2:02 pm
jcrawf02 (1/18/2011)
Chad Crawford (1/18/2011)
That is correct.The easiest way I've found to explain it is to figure out how you can lose. There are three choices, right?
If you've picked the door with goat #1, the host must show you goat #2, so if you switch you win.
If you've picked the door with goat #2, the host must show you goat #1, so if you switch you win.
If you've picked the door with the car, the host can show you either goat and if you switch you lose.
So... by switching, the probability of winning is 2 in 3, 66%.
If you don't switch and keep your original guess, the probability that you guessed right hasn't changed so you have a 1/3 chance (33%) of getting the car.
Most people think that switching gives you a 50/50 chance, but that is not the case. Class dismissed. :-D:-D:-D:-D:-D:-D:-D
Monty Hall (this riddle) described on Wikipedia
Chad
Sorry cousin, but this is why statisticians are dorks. If you already found the car, and you switch for the goat just to prove a statistical point, then you get what you deserve. 50/50 ;-):-D
Just because 87% of all statistics are made up on the spot is no reason to discount the other 13%. 😛
Chad
January 18, 2011 at 2:18 pm
Steve Jones - SSC Editor (1/18/2011)
OK, to change the subject.There are three boxes of fruit. One has apples, one oranges, and one has mixed apples/oranges. Each one is labeled, but incorrectly so that the label of each does not match the contents. You can open one box, and select one fruit.
How do you get the labels applied correctly?
Have someone else do it. "you can open one box" != "only one box can be opened". And, heck, if two of the boxes are unopenable, it really doesn't matter what's in them. 🙂
- Gus "GSquared", RSVP, OODA, MAP, NMVP, FAQ, SAT, SQL, DNA, RNA, UOI, IOU, AM, PM, AD, BC, BCE, USA, UN, CF, ROFL, LOL, ETC
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January 18, 2011 at 2:34 pm
Back on topic!!!!
Looks like the new semester's started: http://www.sqlservercentral.com/Forums/Topic1049661-357-1.aspx
Never stop learning, even if it hurts. Ego bruises are practically mandatory as you learn unless you've never risked enough to make a mistake.
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Twitter: @AnyWayDBA
January 18, 2011 at 3:20 pm
Craig Farrell (1/18/2011)
Back on topic!!!!Looks like the new semester's started: http://www.sqlservercentral.com/Forums/Topic1049661-357-1.aspx
Wow, that thread descended into evil rather quickly...you guys must wreak havoc on April Fools' Day (or its SA equivalent Gail, sorry)
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How best to post your question[/url]
How to post performance problems[/url]
Tally Table:What it is and how it replaces a loop[/url]
"stewsterl 80804 (10/16/2009)I guess when you stop and try to understand the solution provided you not only learn, but save yourself some headaches when you need to make any slight changes."
January 18, 2011 at 3:27 pm
jcrawf02 (1/18/2011)
you guys must wreak havoc on April Fools' Day (or its SA equivalent Gail, sorry)
It's called that here too. We (kinda) keep to the British tradition that the fool must be done before noon. Pranking people in other time zones complicates that though.
Hmmm... What should I do for an april fools day post this year I wonder.
Gail Shaw
Microsoft Certified Master: SQL Server, MVP, M.Sc (Comp Sci)
SQL In The Wild: Discussions on DB performance with occasional diversions into recoverability
January 18, 2011 at 3:32 pm
Hey guys, I'm trying to help magoo out and we're twisting around a non-materialized view, a collation, and a linked server finally giving up on an index seek once transferred to the view. My standard practices avoid this situation like the plague so I'm a bit out of my depth on the fixes other than standard overhauls.
Anyone got some time to poke their heads in and save me from floundering on the dock while I try to help him?
http://www.sqlservercentral.com/Forums/Topic1049600-392-1.aspx?Update=1
Never stop learning, even if it hurts. Ego bruises are practically mandatory as you learn unless you've never risked enough to make a mistake.
For better assistance in answering your questions[/url] | Forum Netiquette
For index/tuning help, follow these directions.[/url] |Tally Tables[/url]
Twitter: @AnyWayDBA
January 18, 2011 at 3:33 pm
Hey, where did the list of SQL Spackle article ideas get to? Can't find it by searching on the forums, unless I just suck.
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How best to post your question[/url]
How to post performance problems[/url]
Tally Table:What it is and how it replaces a loop[/url]
"stewsterl 80804 (10/16/2009)I guess when you stop and try to understand the solution provided you not only learn, but save yourself some headaches when you need to make any slight changes."
January 18, 2011 at 3:39 pm
GilaMonster (1/18/2011)
jcrawf02 (1/18/2011)
you guys must wreak havoc on April Fools' Day (or its SA equivalent Gail, sorry)It's called that here too. We (kinda) keep to the British tradition that the fool must be done before noon. Pranking people in other time zones complicates that though.
Hmmm... What should I do for an april fools day post this year I wonder.
It is a good time to start prepping it. I need to get one going too.
Jason...AKA CirqueDeSQLeil
_______________________________________________
I have given a name to my pain...MCM SQL Server, MVP
SQL RNNR
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January 18, 2011 at 5:55 pm
Chad Crawford (1/18/2011)
Since my degree in Stats was hammered earlier today, here's a classic:You are on a game show. There are three doors, behind one of them is a car, behind the other two are goats. You get to pick one of the three doors. After you pick a door, the game show host opens one of the unpicked doors to show you a goat an allows you to switch doors if desired. Should you switch or stick with your original guess? For bonus points, what is the probability of getting the car based on your decision to switch or stay?
Chad
It so happens that I already possess a car, and would like a goat :hehe:. So I will choose to switch (to the door where I've been shown the goat). For bonus points, based on my decision, the probability of getting the car is zero. 😀
this is a nice illustration of the uselessness of incomplete requirements.
Tom
January 18, 2011 at 6:21 pm
Chad Crawford (1/18/2011)
The easiest way I've found to explain it is to figure out how you can lose. There are three choices, right?If you've picked the door with goat #1, the host must show you goat #2, so if you switch you win.
If you've picked the door with goat #2, the host must show you goat #1, so if you switch you win.
If you've picked the door with the car, the host can show you either goat and if you switch you lose.
So... by switching, the probability of winning is 2 in 3, 66%.
I think there are two easier ways of getting the right answer.
1) The probability that both the boxes I didn't pick are duds is 1 in three. When I switch, the only way I can lose is if both the boxes I didn't pick are dud, and the chance of that is 1 in 3. So when I switch the chance I win is 2 in 3.
2) The chance I picked the winning box is 1 in 3. Showing me that one of the other boxes is dud doesn't change that, there's still a 1 in 3 chance my pick is the winner; so the only other box left must have the remaining 2 in 3 chances of being the winner - so I switch to that box.
Tom
January 18, 2011 at 6:31 pm
jcrawf02 (1/18/2011)
Craig Farrell (1/18/2011)
Back on topic!!!!Looks like the new semester's started: http://www.sqlservercentral.com/Forums/Topic1049661-357-1.aspx
Wow, that thread descended into evil rather quickly...you guys must wreak havoc on April Fools' Day (or its SA equivalent Gail, sorry)
Evil? or demented thoughts?
Wayne
Microsoft Certified Master: SQL Server 2008
Author - SQL Server T-SQL Recipes
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